Draft Thoughts

                                                     Nate’s 9: Draft Thoughts

          In past years, I would be really late with this, but thanks to Roger Goodell, this will be coming out just in time for me to be wrong about everything.  I will say that this draft is unlike most.  There is no consensus #1 pick.  There are 50-60 first round talents, which mean that each team could come away from this draft with 2-3 guys ready to step in immediately.  There is also equal depth among many positions, which means that teams aren’t going to have to reach to make risky picks.  Teams can fill needs elsewhere.  I am looking forward to it, and for the first time as a fan of the NFL as a whole, as opposed to separate entities.

#9 – All three quarterbacks will be solid NFL players.  By three I mean, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, and Blake Bortles.  All three of them have gifts that will translate to the NFL game, and all three has deficiencies that will probably keep them from the NFL elite.

Teddy makes good reads, moves in the pocket well, and hasn’t missed a game.  He probably lacks the leadership required to truly be a great player, but could do well on a team full of them.  I liken him to a Doug Williams or Brad Johnson, both guys that have rings, and both guys that had other players lead.

Manziel is the most polarizing of the three.  On one note, he is very exciting.  He uses his athleticism well, and can keep the play alive for receivers to get open, unlike the other two.  He has no fear in or out of the pocket, at least on Saturdays.  But just like Cam Newton, he can be distracted easily.  He enjoys the celebrity that comes with being a quarterback, and even though the Panthers won a lot of games with Newton, they never posed a serious threat as a Super Bowl contender, at least in my opinion.  I think a Manziel led team would suffer from the same consequences.  A few 11-5 seasons, but that fear of not being as hungry as a Manning, Brady or Wilson.

Bortles is intriguing.  In the few games I saw him; he made it very difficult for the opposing defense to beat him.  He gets the ball out quickly, doesn’t really force throws, and has a quiet air and confidence about getting the job done.  He made my Penn State defense look rather silly and in Happy Valley.  My only concerns are whether it was a one year masterpiece or if this is the start of something special.  So many quarterbacks have come into the NFL on the tail end of a great season, only to show an average skill set at the highest level (V.Young, Couch, Boller). I’d hate for Bortles to end up in that category, but a few of the signs point to similarities between careers.  Young was confident once too.

#8 – Jadeveon Clowney is the real deal.  This always happens around this time of year, and it can be easy to get caught up in the hype.  He’s too lazy. He takes plays off. He doesn’t care enough.  In any case, they said the same things about Randy Moss.  He’s a top 5 WR of all-time.  I’d hate to see some 20 teams make the same mistake.  But I don’t think he’ll get past #6. Thomas Dimitroff is too smart, and I think he will do everything in his power to get Clowney on the Falcons.  Watch this space.

#7 – I’m obsessed with Sammy Watkins.  Those that know me well already knew that.  Those that don’t will get to know Sammy real soon.  I heard that he is the best wide receiver prospect to come out of college since Calvin Johnson.  I believe that to be true.  Beyond that though, I think he could be the guy to challenge for the Jerry Rice throne.  I believe he is that good.  He’s quick, strong, has a great first couple of steps, and the way he separates himself from the defender is unmatched.  Rice had those same qualities too, and that’s why Jerry and Montana were so successful.  I only wish that he would fall through the cracks of the really bad teams at the top and end up in a similar situation that happened to Rice, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, etc… don ‘t think it’ll happen though, and he’ll either be a Ram, Buccaneer, Raider or Lion.  Too bad.

#6 – I am not a fan of Justin Gilbert.  I really don’t like combine guys.  With the exception of a few like Brian Cushing, Mario Williams, and Calvin, it really shouldn’t affect a guy’s draft stock more than a couple of picks.  But for some reason, scouts get excited even though they saw them many Saturdays in the months prior.  Justin Gilbert is my guy this year.  I watched a few Oklahoma State games, and while he was their best secondary player, he never made the big plays that scouts believe he will at the highest level.  He’s quick, no doubt, but just like many other speed guys in draft history (Troy Williamson, Pac Man Jones, Darren McFadden) there’s more to it than that.

#5 – Ra’Shede Hageman would look great in a Patriots jersey.  Peyton Manning had ALL DAY to throw against the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game.  Then he got destroyed in the super bowl.  Hmm, could it have been the pass rush?  For as many holes as we’re led to believe New England have, getting a pass rushing defensive lineman is an absolute must.  Hageman disrupted so many Big Ten(?) offenses this past season, and a casual Gopher fan could see that he was primed to play on Sundays.  If he was a little quicker, he could have been top 10-15.

#4 – There are about 6-8 WR’s that could make an impact in this draft class.  I think that’s why Carolina was so quick to let Brandon LaFell and Steve Smith hit the market and the same can be said for Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles.  I don’t expect all 8 WR’s to go in the first round, but they will all likely be gone by the time Seattle picks for the 2nd time at the end of the 2nd round.  Here’s how I would rank them based on how I think they will do on Sundays. (Quarterbacks obviously change things, but I think most teams needing a WR this year, have capable signal-callers)
1. Sammy Watkins
2. Mike Evans – Huge body, huge talent.
3. Brandin Cooks – The new DeSean Jackson.  An Eagle?
4. Marqise Lee – I’ve been obsessed with him too.
5. Kelvin Benjamin – Monster size.  A punk, but with high rewards.
6. Odell Beckham – Lots of big plays, a match-up nightmare.
7. Jarvis Landry – Not afraid to go over middle. I love that.
8. Allen Robinson – I saw a lot of him.  Makes great, tough catches.

#3 – Chris Borland will start the minute he shakes Roger Goodell’s hand.  Or thereabouts.  When Zach Thomas retired, I thought that would be the end of the great, under-sized, middle linebacker.  Boy was I wrong.  Borland isn’t as small as Thomas, but the instincts are pretty close.  Like Thomas, he will fall from the top because of his “lack of speed” and the NFL belief that Mike backers are easy to come by.  But he will start day 1, and he will be great.  I can promise you.

#2 – There are going to be a lot of trades.  Because of the ridiculous amount of depth in this draft, and the lack of a truly bad team in the NFL (Come on, the Texans tanked on purpose after about week 8),means people are going to be on the phone at all times come May 8th.  I think if you see any prospect fall even 5-6 picks past their slotted draft pick, teams will be making moves in order to get them.  This might be the first draft where the first night goes beyond mid-night.  For those of you that are fans of chess, you understand.  For those that aren’t… just about any team can win a super bowl in this league in any given season.  But you have to know when to move your rooks and when to move your queen.

#1 – Seattle will end up with a good player, and maintain their status as Super Bowl favorites.  I don’t know who it’s going to be, and besides running back and quarterback I have no idea what part of the field that they are going to come from, but their front office has been unequivocally flawless when it comes to drafting over these past few seasons.  I’m betting that they don’t get it wrong; fundamentally, they’ve probably already gotten it right.

All-Time Batting Line-Up

                                                          Nate’s 9: All-Time Baseball Line-Up

Without a DH of course, because that wouldn't be fair.  I've always been intrigued by baseball numbers and statistics. Even more than that, I love the history and personalities of baseball and its players.  This blog post appeared easy at first sit-down; the final result was a different story.  (I've been sitting here for about two hours now).  Anyway, the players will have had to play the positions; otherwise the rules are pretty relaxed.  Baseball fans enjoy!

Note:  Usually I count down from 9 as it makes more sense for suspense and things of that nature.  This time it makes more sense to start from the top of the line-up.  You, the reader can feel free to make the 9th batter (the pitcher) choice as suspenseful as you’d like.

Leading off...

1. OF Rickey Henderson.  This was easy.  He’s one of my favorite players of all-time and was tailor made to lead off for any great baseball team. (This is assuming my team would be great.)  He does all of the little things at bat, and isn't a slouch in the outfield.  A hot dog, maybe, but there’s no one else I’d rather have in this spot.

2. OF Darin Erstad. I’m just kidding, but did you know that he is really ranked in the top 500 baseball players of all-time?  (In WAR) Interesting, but true.  In any case...

2. 3B Jackie Robinson.  Well this is how I see it... for as much as I need the Henderson personality type on my team; I also need the low-key, humble athlete that isn't afraid to steal home.  There’s probably only one.  Jackie would be great for the locker room, and man, would he help this team win.  Can’t think of a better one-two then this pair. Beyond that, I really can’t think of any third baseman I liked, second base was rather crowded, and he did it (3B) for five seasons...

3. OF Barry Bonds.  He might clash with Rickey Henderson a little bit, but as long as I have someone in between them in CF, I might get away with it.  Besides, with those two table setters above him, there is no way Barry is going to be intentionally walked, which means I get to see him hit.  I know all about the ‘roids and anger issues, but come on!  If this man wasn’t walked 2,558 times in his career; the numbers we could’ve seen! We have a bit of a short memory, but he only hit 50 homeruns once. (73). Even if he didn’t use, it’s probably still about 650-700 homeruns in his career.  I’ll take it.

4. 1B Lou Gehrig.  Even if I don’t need a little luck, I may as well take the guy who considers himself the luckiest ever.  A pro’s pro, and I feel like I could use a few guys whose egos weren’t as high as their slugging percentage.  The perfect clean-up hitter in any case, because he was familiar with hitting behind the best player of his day, so why not keep him comfortable.

5. OF Stan Musial.  I debated over this spot more than any of the other ones.  Not only the position in the line-up, but also who I would put here.  It could’ve come down to DiMaggio, Mantle, Mays, Ruth (Henderson moves to CF), Clemente, Puckett, and many others.  But looking back on Stan’s career, the dude could just hit.  He hit, and he knocked in runs.  I’m not sure that I can really ask for more than that from the #5 spot.  Plus, he was above average on defense, and could handle the beasts that are Bonds and Henderson.

6. C Joe Mauer.  Probably what many may consider to be the most ridiculous of all my picks, especially when I had many other catchers to choose from.  But he is a quality pick for 2 reasons.  First, he isn’t awful in 2 strike counts.  Assuming that great line-ups would play other people’s great line-ups, he would probably be facing a lot of your pitchers that could get the ball over the plate.  Second, he is probably the best contact hitter at catcher of all-time.  The guy hits around .340 when fully healthy and motivated.  No other catcher has ever done that.  I’m fine with this pick.

7. SS Barry Larkin.  For years, I had preferred Ozzie Smith and Cal Ripken Jr. to Barry.  He was so quiet, and the media never really gave us anything on him.  Yet, take a look back to his game and he truly is one of the greats.  He did everything well.  Played the field, ran the bases, hit for average, won a championship.  I think that he would quietly be the leader of this team, and would have no problem hitting 7th.  Ozzie’s bat wouldn’t allow for it, and although Cal would play every day, the leadership is what gets me.  Barry wins.

8. 2B Bill Mazeroski.  I went in thinking it would be either Rogers Hornsby or Chuck Knoblauch.  Knoblauch, because for as much as his... douchyness, he was a great player, and stepped up in the big moments.  Except for when getting hit by batteries.  Hornsby was the best in his day, but Mazeroski was better in the field and would make a great double play pairing with Larkin.  Plus, I can probably get away with hitting him 8th.  He never topped 20 home runs, and his career batting average was .260.  But if it was the bottom of the 9th in a World Series game and I needed a home run?  It’s nice when you know that they’ve been there before.

9. P Mariano Rivera.  I know he can’t hit, and I know he won’t give me 9 innings, but if this was just a 3 inning game, no team would be able to bat around.  Once he figured out his pitch, he was probably the most difficult pitcher to hit off of in the history of modern baseball (1950 and up I’d say). I never saw Sandy Koufax or Tom Seaver, and I know Doc Gooden and Roger Clemens were filthy, but that fastball was so dirty, I needed a bath after watching it.  He could definitely compete against anyone’s order, and with options like above, all I need is someone that would give me a chance.

Favorite Actresses

Nate’s Nine: Top Actresses

            This will probably come out a little different than many may think, myself included.  When I actually sat down to outline the women I thought would make my 9, a many of them came from the last ten to fifteen years.  Then I realized I've only been watching movies for the last ten to fifteen years on a consistent basis.  I have nothing against the actresses from the early days; only that I wish I could have seen more of their movies.  This blog was just a tiny bit easier than the top actors blog, instead of 70 to begin with, I only had about 50.

#9 – Helen Mirren. She only gets in here because of two performances, but I hear that she is an outstanding voice character in the movie, “Monsters University”.  I have seen and own “The Queen”, it’s one of my favorite films of all-time.  She was also sneaky good in the movie, “Excalibur” playing Arthur’s half-sister and getting into all sorts of trouble.  I also enjoyed her in the TV mini-series, “Elizabeth”, but I’m not sure that propels her any higher on the list.  Definitely tailor-made to play the Queen though.

#8 – Scarlett Johansson. Besides the fact that I am completely drawn to her beauty, I also think she has really come into her own as a good actress.  To be quite honest, I didn't think she was pretty at all in the movie “Lost in Translation” and couldn't understand what the hype was about.  I did think the film was clever, if not magnificent like the rest of the reviewing public.  Then in my eyes, she hit a hot streak.  “The Island”, “Match Point”, “In Good Company”, and “The Black Dahlia” were all enjoyable, and she played her parts well.  Then an absolute masterpiece of a film with “The Prestige”, put her clearly in my sights, and she’s been banging out good performances since then.  Rumor has it that I will be very excited to see her in the new Captain America movie.  Ignoring the obvious acting flaws that will come from a movie like this, I’m guessing that’s close to the truth.

#7 -  Michelle Pfeiffer. For as well as Al Pacino played the Tony Montana role, I thought Michelle was right next to him with her portrayal of Elvira Hancock.  She was stunning, and probably would've owned the film if Pacino wasn’t so invigorating.  She is also the only reason (ONLY) that I actually enjoyed Grease 2. Beyond that though, she really has had a solid career even if she hasn't pulled any Academy Award wins.  She was amusing in “New Year’s Eve” playing a lady who’s life didn’t have much direction in present day New York City.  “I am Sam” is of course one of my favorite films, and she was fantastic as Luanne Johnson in “Dangerous Minds”. Maybe I do need to step up my game a little bit though and finally watch “What Lies Beneath”.

#6 – Diane Keaton. I kind of feel the same way about her in “The Godfather” as I do about Pfeiffer in “Scarface”.  She wasn’t supposed to own the film in any way, but that scene where she isn’t supposed to ask him about his business... man.  Then she goes to pour Michael a drink, but she knew.  And you can feel the emotions she’s having during that scene.  Not many like it...  “Annie Hall”, gets her on this list as well, and even the Rom-Com 2000 films like “Something’s Gotta Give” and “Because I Said So” were good enough to watch.  “The Family Stone” is one of the more underrated films of the last ten years.  A quality package, indeed.

#5 – Annette Benning. Never really noticed her until I saw the film “American Beauty” which was haunting and beautiful to say the least.  It certainly made me change my thoughts about happy suburban life anyway.  She made her character interesting, if not charming, and kind of offered a sympathetic view for being married to Kevin Spacey’s character.  “The Kids are All Right”, and “Open Range”, were both solid films, but what really sold it for me was her performance as Virginia Hill in the movie “Bugsy”.  She was superb, and opened up a new type of curiosity for me as far as those old-style actresses carried on back in the 40’s.  I still want to see that killer moment though before I can put her higher on this list.

#4 – Jodie Foster.  Once again, two films give her a Nate’s Nine appearance.  Of course we all know about her quality work in “Taxi”, when she plays the young prostitute that Travis Bickle attempts to save. And second, one of the most memorable moments of my life, when I finally saw “Silence of the Lambs”, for the first and only time.  It’s an incredible film, given by some fantastic performances, but it was such a mind bleep, that I don’t think I can see it again.  I had nightmares for weeks, and still get them periodically to this day.  But Jodie kills it as Clarice.  In fact, when I hear the name Clarice, it takes me back to the insane asylum with Hannibal...  I’m sure she’s had other great performances, but those two are all I need to see her greatness in film.

#3 – Halle Berry.  Now don’t get me wrong, she plays a nice Storm and all, and she was a gift to the movie “Swordfish”, but everything in between has really given Berry a nice distinguished career as an actress.  “Things we Lost in the Fire”, “Monsters Ball”, “Losing Isaiah”, “Cloud Atlas”, were all just really stellar performances, and now I’d put her close to the top of any actress list, not just my own.  She’s also easy on the eyes, and doesn’t blow her own horn, which is refreshing.  I didn’t even mind her as a Bond girl in “Die Another Day”.  Even her role as Cappy in “Robots”, made for easy listening.

#2 – Keira Knightley.  Well of course!  But not for all the usual reasons this time.  For as much as I enjoy the Pirates of the Caribbean films, her accent,  the soccer passion, vocal talents and all the other lovely treats, her ascension to the top has been very impressive too.  “Love Actually”, kicked it off for me, as I wanted more!  She really hasn’t gone back to that role of the girl next door, but she has picked many winners from, “Pride and Prejudice”, “Atonement”, “The Edge of Love”, “The Duchess”, and “Anna Karenina”. I also really enjoyed “Seeking a Friend for the End of the World”, which was far better than I had imagined.  “Last Night”, was something that I only decided to watch because she was in it, and although it wasn’t a great performance, she was still part of a rather good film.  Lest not we forget her greatest work and one of the greatest films of the 20^th century, “Bend it Like Beckham”. 

#1 – Meryl Streep.  Like the Yankees.  3 Oscars and 18 nominations.  That is absurd.  Most Hollywood talents’ careers don’t last 18 movies.  I must say though, that it took something as ridiculous as “The Devil Wears Prada” to see just how talented she really is.  I missed all of the great classics, of course, and had no real recollection of her work in the movies I had seen like, “The Manchurian Candidate”, “The River Wild”, and “The Hours”.  But when I decided to take a trip back to the great films of the 1970’s and 1980’s... wow.  Simply wow.  I wanted to punch her in the face for her role in “Kramer vs Kramer”.  “The Deer Hunter” instantly made it into my top 10 at first viewing, and how she portrayed someone that had to deal with the struggles and decisions that she did was some of the best acting I’ve ever seen.  “Julia” was mesmerizing and also caused many types of emotions in me as well.  This is how great her dominance has become, as even though she is already at the top, I have yet to see “The Iron Lady”, “Out of Africa”, and “Doubt”.  Even the Rom-Com’s are enjoyable.  I must say my all-time favorite Rom-Com is probably “It’s Complicated”, especially the scenes she has with Alec Baldwin.  In any case, probably the easiest #1 I have given since I started the nine lists.  Well deserved.  

Family Traditions

Nate’s Nine: Traditions

          Sorry I disappeared for awhile; the laptop has gone berserk, and I have no idea how to fix the problem.  I have a few blogs complete, so I’ll try and post a few just to show that I still care.  This particular post is more in accordance to what traditions I would like to introduce to my children, and not with what traditions I enjoyed growing up.  What are some of your favorites?

#9 – Bike Rides.  This is the one tradition I wish I had growing up.  Although, if it interfered with any of my sports playing and watching, probably not.  I do think with three boys that it’s something that is cheap and easy and also a nice way for our family to bond and stay in shape.

#8 – Pizza Night.  We have already started this tradition of ordering pizza about once a week, and I enjoy it because it doesn’t require any of us to be in the kitchen for a night. Plus, when the boys become teenagers we can order about 5 pizzas and everyone will be full and not have to clean up.  I’m guessing they’ll appreciate that.

#7 – Summer Camp.  Growing up, I was really bipolar about summer camp. I loved all the sports, meeting new people, and learning about independence and other such criteria.  But I got really homesick some years, and missed just the neighborhood camaraderie that the Red Fox provided my brother and I.  Still at the end of the day, I’m glad for the experience and I hope that if I can send them, my boys will too.

#6 – Game Nights.  I can’t wait any longer for the first time my family goes to war.  And by war, I mean the board game “Risk”.  It was my favorite board game growing up, but I haven’t played more than a half dozen games in the last ten years.  As soon as they can comprehend the details and fundamentals of such a complex game, game night will be an exciting time at the Confer house.

#5 – Family Trips. Two of my favorite memories growing up was my trip to Disneyworld with my brother and mother (It was really the first time that my brother and I really, truly bonded) and when my mother and I did a short Germany-Netherlands tour during my exchange in 2000.  Beyond that, taking Aiden to Disneyworld was nothing short of magnificent, with him being able to interact with his favorite Disney characters even though he was just a year old.  I need to have a few more of these memories with Sara and the boys.

#4 – 3 Questions. Aiden and I have already started this, but for obvious reasons it’s a little more difficult with the twins.  But every day, either at the dinner table or right before bedtime, we get the opportunity to ask each other a couple of questions relating to anything that we choose.  Aiden and I usually ask each other about favorites, and it’s funny listening to Aiden change his favorite thing on a daily basis.  His favorite colors have been pink, blue, red, white, green, orange and black.  I just think that this is a simple way of getting to know your children a little better, and it only takes a minute out of your day.

#3 – Sporting Events.  I love each and every one of these.  I’ve been to baseball, football, basketball, hockey, tennis, soccer, track and field, lacrosse, wrestling… events, and they are all so unique and fun.  I hope that all 3 of my boys will cherish these experiences with Sara and I, and we can cultivate their interest in sports and maybe even nudge them to a certain career path.  One can only hope.

#2 – 1 on 1 Time. This is such an underrated occasion that one can have with their child.  Just undivided 1-1 time.  I think at the end of the day it really is the best way to nurture your child and develop a relationship with them.  I know it’s going to probably be few and far between with sports and school and all the other things that happen in our lives, but I would like to at least once a month have a day to spend with each one of my three kids, and to also have a day with my wife as well. 

#1 – Valleyfair.  This is the one tradition that I wish to carry on from my own family upbringing.  Every year we got a season’s pass, and I used to look forward to going and riding rides just about every weekend during the summer.  Although we are going to have an odd number of people for the rides, I really think this is where my family can have a chance to shine.  We can invite friends and family to join us as the sixth wheel, and show them just how awesome my family is, and will be.  I can’t wait to see these boys grow up and start some family traditions of their own!!!