In past years, I would be really late with this, but thanks to Roger Goodell, this will be coming out just in time for me to be wrong about everything. I will say that this draft is unlike most. There is no consensus #1 pick. There are 50-60 first round talents, which mean that each team could come away from this draft with 2-3 guys ready to step in immediately. There is also equal depth among many positions, which means that teams aren’t going to have to reach to make risky picks. Teams can fill needs elsewhere. I am looking forward to it, and for the first time as a fan of the NFL as a whole, as opposed to separate entities.
#9 – All three quarterbacks will be solid NFL players. By three I mean, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, and Blake Bortles. All three of them have gifts that will translate to the NFL game, and all three has deficiencies that will probably keep them from the NFL elite.
Teddy makes good reads, moves in the pocket well, and hasn’t missed a game. He probably lacks the leadership required to truly be a great player, but could do well on a team full of them. I liken him to a Doug Williams or Brad Johnson, both guys that have rings, and both guys that had other players lead.
Manziel is the most polarizing of the three. On one note, he is very exciting. He uses his athleticism well, and can keep the play alive for receivers to get open, unlike the other two. He has no fear in or out of the pocket, at least on Saturdays. But just like Cam Newton, he can be distracted easily. He enjoys the celebrity that comes with being a quarterback, and even though the Panthers won a lot of games with Newton, they never posed a serious threat as a Super Bowl contender, at least in my opinion. I think a Manziel led team would suffer from the same consequences. A few 11-5 seasons, but that fear of not being as hungry as a Manning, Brady or Wilson.
Bortles is intriguing. In the few games I saw him; he made it very difficult for the opposing defense to beat him. He gets the ball out quickly, doesn’t really force throws, and has a quiet air and confidence about getting the job done. He made my Penn State defense look rather silly and in Happy Valley. My only concerns are whether it was a one year masterpiece or if this is the start of something special. So many quarterbacks have come into the NFL on the tail end of a great season, only to show an average skill set at the highest level (V.Young, Couch, Boller). I’d hate for Bortles to end up in that category, but a few of the signs point to similarities between careers. Young was confident once too.
#8 – Jadeveon Clowney is the real deal. This always happens around this time of year, and it can be easy to get caught up in the hype. He’s too lazy. He takes plays off. He doesn’t care enough. In any case, they said the same things about Randy Moss. He’s a top 5 WR of all-time. I’d hate to see some 20 teams make the same mistake. But I don’t think he’ll get past #6. Thomas Dimitroff is too smart, and I think he will do everything in his power to get Clowney on the Falcons. Watch this space.
#7 – I’m obsessed with Sammy Watkins. Those that know me well already knew that. Those that don’t will get to know Sammy real soon. I heard that he is the best wide receiver prospect to come out of college since Calvin Johnson. I believe that to be true. Beyond that though, I think he could be the guy to challenge for the Jerry Rice throne. I believe he is that good. He’s quick, strong, has a great first couple of steps, and the way he separates himself from the defender is unmatched. Rice had those same qualities too, and that’s why Jerry and Montana were so successful. I only wish that he would fall through the cracks of the really bad teams at the top and end up in a similar situation that happened to Rice, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, etc… don ‘t think it’ll happen though, and he’ll either be a Ram, Buccaneer, Raider or Lion. Too bad.
#6 – I am not a fan of Justin Gilbert. I really don’t like combine guys. With the exception of a few like Brian Cushing, Mario Williams, and Calvin, it really shouldn’t affect a guy’s draft stock more than a couple of picks. But for some reason, scouts get excited even though they saw them many Saturdays in the months prior. Justin Gilbert is my guy this year. I watched a few Oklahoma State games, and while he was their best secondary player, he never made the big plays that scouts believe he will at the highest level. He’s quick, no doubt, but just like many other speed guys in draft history (Troy Williamson, Pac Man Jones, Darren McFadden) there’s more to it than that.
#5 – Ra’Shede Hageman would look great in a Patriots jersey. Peyton Manning had ALL DAY to throw against the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Then he got destroyed in the super bowl. Hmm, could it have been the pass rush? For as many holes as we’re led to believe New England have, getting a pass rushing defensive lineman is an absolute must. Hageman disrupted so many Big Ten(?) offenses this past season, and a casual Gopher fan could see that he was primed to play on Sundays. If he was a little quicker, he could have been top 10-15.
#4 – There are about 6-8 WR’s that could make an impact in this draft class. I think that’s why Carolina was so quick to let Brandon LaFell and Steve Smith hit the market and the same can be said for Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles. I don’t expect all 8 WR’s to go in the first round, but they will all likely be gone by the time Seattle picks for the 2nd time at the end of the 2nd round. Here’s how I would rank them based on how I think they will do on Sundays. (Quarterbacks obviously change things, but I think most teams needing a WR this year, have capable signal-callers)
1. Sammy Watkins
2. Mike Evans – Huge body, huge talent.
3. Brandin Cooks – The new DeSean Jackson. An Eagle?
4. Marqise Lee – I’ve been obsessed with him too.
5. Kelvin Benjamin – Monster size. A punk, but with high rewards.
6. Odell Beckham – Lots of big plays, a match-up nightmare.
7. Jarvis Landry – Not afraid to go over middle. I love that.
8. Allen Robinson – I saw a lot of him. Makes great, tough catches.
#3 – Chris Borland will start the minute he shakes Roger Goodell’s hand. Or thereabouts. When Zach Thomas retired, I thought that would be the end of the great, under-sized, middle linebacker. Boy was I wrong. Borland isn’t as small as Thomas, but the instincts are pretty close. Like Thomas, he will fall from the top because of his “lack of speed” and the NFL belief that Mike backers are easy to come by. But he will start day 1, and he will be great. I can promise you.
#2 – There are going to be a lot of trades. Because of the ridiculous amount of depth in this draft, and the lack of a truly bad team in the NFL (Come on, the Texans tanked on purpose after about week 8),means people are going to be on the phone at all times come May 8th. I think if you see any prospect fall even 5-6 picks past their slotted draft pick, teams will be making moves in order to get them. This might be the first draft where the first night goes beyond mid-night. For those of you that are fans of chess, you understand. For those that aren’t… just about any team can win a super bowl in this league in any given season. But you have to know when to move your rooks and when to move your queen.
#1 – Seattle will end up with a good player, and maintain their status as Super Bowl favorites. I don’t know who it’s going to be, and besides running back and quarterback I have no idea what part of the field that they are going to come from, but their front office has been unequivocally flawless when it comes to drafting over these past few seasons. I’m betting that they don’t get it wrong; fundamentally, they’ve probably already gotten it right.
Zapped by the ad companies! Sorry readers!
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