Another exciting football season is fast approaching, and I believe it’s going to be one of the great seasons we bear witness to. Not that any season should be considered poor; I think there is always a good story or two in every season that football is played. But there are so many great story lines this year that it’s hard not to get excited. We can look at Denver and see that they’ve put all their eggs into the 2014 basket, and really hope to bring the Super Bowl trophy back to Denver for the first time since February of 1999. We can look at Seattle and see what a dominate team that Pete Carroll has built and whether or not they can keep it together while the talented players are paid so reasonably. (Sherman just got his, but you have to think Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and Bruce Irvin are in line for big raises) Cleveland will be fun to follow, even if it’s a team that doesn’t win very many games. Whether or not you love or hate Johnny Manziel, I believe that he is a player that has to be watched. New Orleans, San Francisco, Chicago, Green Bay, Carolina, Denver, New England and Indianapolis have all made significant signings that point to the impression that they all believe that 2014 can be won for themselves by next February. Regardless of what happens, I hope you, the reader, enjoy the season and maybe through my blogs this year enjoy the sport beyond the passion of the game and from more of an analytical and balanced viewpoint. In either case, football is back!!!
2014 will be my third season ranking NFL teams using the NTN formula (NFL Theory of Nate). For those of you that are familiar with it, awesome and thank you for reading my blogs, for those not, I hope it gives you an alternate view to predict a winner and see teams for maybe what they are. I have included my basis for determining each team’s total down below:
20/20/20 – I rate three sections of an organization on a scale from 1-20. 1 constitutes a team that needs an immediate concentration of improvement for that position. 20 represents the best at their position for their time.
The first section is quarterback presentation. This rates everything including: a quarterback’s arm strength and accuracy, to leading his teammates to victory, and how capable they can be the face of the franchise. I believe that this is the most important position in sports, and therefore the difference between having a 1 or a 20 can mean multiple championships, and large revenue streams.
The second section is coaching capabilities. This rates everything including: game day preparation, media involvement, motivational tactics, and general managing skills. A coach that can provide a large number in this category can give teams the expectation of a super bowl appearance year in and year out, and give any organization instant credibility with their arrival.
The final section is defensive schematics. This rates everything including: talent level, discipline, awareness, evolution of defensive tactics, turnover capability, and leadership skills. A team that can shut down both aspects of an opposing offense, while giving their team the best opportunity to win a game is going to rate very highly in this category.
QB
1 – Immediate opportunity to improve. Playoffs are likely impossible.
5 – Capable of flashes of success. Should improve position as soon as possible.
10 – Solid starter. Playoffs wouldn’t be a surprise. Super Bowl would.
15 – Team can begin to have Super Bowl expectations. Can continue with this guy.
20 – Super Bowl or bust. This guy makes team and organization better.
Coach
1 – Fired no later than season’s end. Lost both players and organizations faith. Move on.
5 – Capable of winning games. May hit on draft picks periodically. Keeps job for 2+ yrs
10 – Doesn’t give away football games. Good eye for talent. Playoff potential.
15 – Winner. Gets to the playoffs about 50-75% of the time. Teams covet these types.
20 – This guy can be face of organization. Leaves on own terms. Instant credibility.
Defense
1 – A mess everywhere. Gives up both big plays and long drives. Doesn’t change games.
5 – Might help the offense, but generally hurts organization. No long-term value.
10 – Can stop most QB’s from great success. Must game plan for some of the talent.
15 – Quality and depth. Force’s offensive to make many adjustments. Can win games.
20 – Very difficult to move ball against. Terrific vs both pass and run. Generates turnovers and scores points.
Looking back on previous written previews, I really only rate the teams based on my formula, and don’t really discuss how and why I think the team will finish with the predicted amount of wins and losses that I have them at. The rest of the offense besides the quarterback, strength of schedule, weather and home-field advantage are things that I don't really take into consideration for this purpose...This year, I will summarize each division first (Players to watch, expectations, etc), then I will rank each team based on NTN. When the playoffs start though, things change so a team with a lower number could most certainly beat a team that has home field advantage and a higher NTN total. Believe you me, we’ve all seen it happen (The 2008 New York Giants beat the 2nd best team of all-time based on NTN, the 18-0[1} New England Patriots).
AFC North: While most people wouldn’t consider this division to be a crap shoot, I think it can be won or lost by three different teams. I do agree that the Cincinnati Bengals should start the season as the favorite, but their offensive line is still average, although Andy Dalton may relax now that he has received his huge money. I still like the Bengals for 9-10 wins, and their running game should be improved with Jeremy Hill in the backfield. AJ Green is one of the best WR's in the league, and just short of Calvin Johnson's skill level. The defense is really interesting, because they have a ton of athleticism, but they lost their glue when Mike Zimmer left for Minnesota. He really had this defense playing hard. Vontaze Burfict is one of the better linebackers in football and gets to all parts of the field. Getting Geno Atkins and Robert Geathers back healthy will be huge. If they finally want to go on a playoff run, these guys will have to play big, because it never seems like Dalton wants to. The secondary has the talent to be among the league's best, but Leon Hall, has been hurt a lot recently and Daniel Manning looks to be regressing. They will need help from Dre Kirkpatrick and Terence Newman to battle the Mannings, Lucks and Bradys in the playoffs... The Pittsburg Steelers and Baltimore Ravens could also win this division. I think both teams have holes that they have to consider; the Steelers with their offensive weapons sans Ben Roethlisberger and the Ravens had a non-existent run game even with Ray Rice last year, but I feel like both teams made excellent picks in the 1st round with Ryan Shazier and CJ Mosley respectively. Shazier will start from week 1 for the Steelers and provides great speed--and instincts off the edge. Mosley could essentially turn into another Ray Lewis if he can find the passion and work ethic that match his clear skills for the game. Joe Flacco will need to have a monster year though, if Baltimore wants to see the playoffs again... The Cleveland Browns will probably be the most entertaining team in this division to watch. Their defense has some first-rate players now including: Donte Whitner, Joe Haden and Barkevious Mingo, who is showing signs of being worth last year’s first round pick. If they can get Josh Gordon back at some point this season, and consistent QB play from either Johnny Manziel or Brian Hoyer, they could be on the right path towards challenging for a playoff place either this year or next.
Pittsburgh Steelers: QB 15 CO 16 DF 15 = 15.3
Cincinnati Bengals: QB 14 CO 16 DF 14 = 14.6
Baltimore Ravens: QB 14 CO 17 DF 13 = 14.6
Cleveland Browns: QB 9 CO 8 DF 15 = 10.6
AFC East: This division has been dominated by one team for quite some time now, and I don’t believe it’s going to change in the short-term. While I like some of the things that the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins have done recently, the New England Patriots still made the best off-season acquisitions in my humble opinion. Signing Darrelle Revis was big, but I think even more important was the emergence of Alfonzo Dennard during the playoffs last year. His presence will be important, because he may get targeted a lot if Brandon Browner plays nickel. I think with the light schedule (Only away to Kansas City looks difficult in their first 8), New England should get the start they need to keep their division lockdown intact... I love everything about the Jets roster, except for their quarterback situation. And that’s a big thing considering the league that they are playing in. They’d be a super bowl contender if we were back in the 1980’s. Or if they could find Dimitri Patterson... I’m only joking. But they probably have the league’s best defensive line with the trio of Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Damon Harrison. Even Kenrick Ellis is a nice play in the rotation. Their offensive line is also close to the quality of the defensive line. Nick Mangold has been great for them, and could quietly get some HOF consideration. The Brick (Ferguson) could be well on his way there too. I just think the Jets are missing that dynamic on offense, and any casual NFL fan could tell you where it’s missing from... The Bills are finally back on the right track. It’s crazy to think about; they haven’t made the AFC playoffs since 1999. 1999! I ask you, where were you then? I was in Germany, thinking the Bills were on the upswing with the likes of Eric Moulds, Sam Cowart and Antoine Winfield. Well, I was wrong, but I haven’t been since. Until now! I think the Bills are really close to approaching the playoffs again. They have a strong run game, which is essential in cold weather Buffalo. They have energetic playmakers at receiver in Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins and Marquise Goodwin. Their offensive line is underrated and should give EJ Manuel time if he can stay healthy. And their defense is on its way to being one of the classiest in the league. (Unfortunate about Kiko Alonso though) Mario Williams has been good, and they have Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams in the middle, two top-notch tackles. The secondary is their weakness, but in this division it may not matter. It’s a shame that Jim Schwartz is their defensive coordinator, but they could finally approach the 9-10 win total this season if they get solid play from Manuel... The Miami Dolphins are at a crossroads. They spent huge free agency money a year ago to support the youth they plugged into the imperative positions (Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, Reshad Jones, etc). Then this past off-season, they spent again to build more balance (Knowshon Moreno, Branden Albert, Cortland Finnegan). And I still don’t believe they will win more than the 6-7 games that they have been winning. This is probably the year where they see if it all pays off. If Tannehill doesn’t hit the 3,000/25 threshold and the defense doesn’t finish in the upper half of the league? This attempt at a quick fix could be over before it starts and one of Bryce Petty, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston or Brett Hundley could be wearing the Dolphins colors in 2015.
Buffalo Bills: QB 10 CO 10 DF 14 = 11.3
Miami Dolphins: QB 8 CO 10 DF 11 = 9.6
New England Patriots: QB 18 CO 20 DF 13 = 17
New York Jets: QB 5 CO 14 DF 16 = 11.6
AFC South: What once was the best division in football... oh wait, this is still the AFC. What’s usually the worst division in football, should once again be the worst division in football. The Colts owned this division for years, minus the one or two seasons that Jeff Fisher got the most out of the Titans. Then, the Texans took over the division while Peyton Manning recovered from his neck issues. Or so we thought. What a horrible performance they put on last season. And now the division is probably a one-horse race once again, this time back to the Indianapolis Colts. This past off-season, they did a little bit of tweaking, but mainly kept the same youthful roster in play. They have some magnificent pieces, mainly Andrew Luck and Robert Mathis, and have pieced together enough veterans (Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Arthur Jones) that should make this team the favorite in the division and the 3rd in the AFC... the Jacksonville Jaguars are actually going to be competitive this year. I’m not trying to put one past anybody; I really believe that. Blaine Gabbert is no longer on the roster! Joking aside, they are moving in the right direction, and their belief in patience at the quarterback position is what I believe will set them up for success. They have nothing to lose by playing Chad Henne and they know that. Justin Blackmon is out for the season, and their running game is anyone’s guess. But the defense will keep them in games, the division will hand them a win or two, and a 4-12 season wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen. Keep your eye on Todd Gurley of the Georgia Bulldogs and watch this space. It could set up nicely... The Tennessee Titans are changing things significantly. They brought in Ken Whisenhunt, who’s known for slinging it around when asked to with Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner and Philip Rivers. They should set up nicely for Jake Locker to finally prove his worth. I think he takes a minor step forward, and the defense will be quietly solid with Jurrell Casey and Michael Griffin, and this team should improve with an eye on the 2015 season to really go for it again... the Houston Texans sucked just enough to put themselves in a good position to be good again. They walked into Jadeveon Clowney which could be one of the great picks of this decade, and they hit on their coach Bill O’Brien as well. Also look for Louis Nix III to make an impact at defensive tackle, and create room for JJ Watt and Clowney to make plays in the backfield. The offense has weapons aplenty with Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins and Garrett Graham, and if Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t screw it up, the Texans could win enough games to be discussed as a playoff team come December. They have the lightest of schedules, and games against the Redskins and Raiders in weeks 1 and 2, could have them 2-0 when the season starts to get a little tricky.
Houston Texans: QB 9 CO 12 DF 13 = 11.3
Indianapolis Colts: QB 18 CO 16 DF 12 = 15.3
Jacksonville Jaguars: QB 7 CO 15 DF 14 = 12
Tennessee Titans: QB 9 CO 11 DF 12 = 10.6
AFC West: This division has likely become the best in the AFC. There are 3 teams that should be vying for the playoffs, and while I don’t think Oakland has a shot at the playoffs this season, the acquisitions of some good veterans will make them hard to beat, as long as their hearts are still in it. Matt Schaub and Justin Tuck will provide leadership if not a little bit of talent on the field as well. They also signed Donald Penn for huge money, which was a surprise as he was one of the worst offensive linemen in the league for Tampa Bay last season. Their running game will be interesting to watch; Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew both have a lot to prove, but both may be playing on their last legs as they’ve both suffered from injuries these past couple of seasons… Kansas City has a lot to prove as well. They were leading Indianapolis by 4 touchdowns with a half to play, and came away without a victory. That’s inexcusable when Jamaal Charles is your running back and you have an offensive line that can maul defenses. They really should’ve been in the divisional round last season. I believe it gets much harder for them this year as Denver could be even better, San Diego is still improving and they have to play against the NFC West as opposed to the NFC East. They may be lucky to go 8-8… San Diego looks good on paper, but may struggle for the same reasons that Kansas City might. They play a really tough schedule this season including trips to Denver, Baltimore and in the final two weeks of the season, San Francisco and Kansas City. Outside of Donald Brown, they didn’t really use the off-season to put more talent on the roster, but that may not matter as they should get more production from Keenan Allen, Ryan Mathews, Melvin Ingram and Shareece Wright… Denver is obviously the team to beat in this division. Their offense won’t miss Eric Decker or Knowshon Moreno at all, and may be even better with the inclusions of Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer. They will need Wes Welker to be healthy, however, as I think he gives this offense a whole different dynamic. Defensively is where I think they’ll be really strong. Von Miller comes back and if healthy, will give them 7 more games than last season. Malik Jackson and DeMarcus Ware are great pass rushing threats, and with the opportunity to hold many leads, they should be given the green light at all times. The secondary will look completely different, but with the additions of TJ Ward and Bradley Roby, they may be even stronger. Most teams that play in last season’s Super Bowl have a tough time getting back, but this team is set up to make that a serious possibility. We should know how good they are by their week 4 bye, their first 3 games are against Indianapolis, Kansas City and Seattle.
Denver Broncos: QB 19 CO 15 DF 17 = 17
Kansas City Chiefs: QB 13 CO 18 DF 15 = 15.3
Oakland Raiders: QB 10 CO 10 DF 10 = 10
San Diego Chargers: QB 15 CO 11 DF 11 = 12.3
NFC North: There’s something to like about each team in this division, but I think each team has a glaring hole that will keep them from getting past the first or second round of the playoffs. The Chicago Bears have one of the most exciting offense’s in the league right now with the quartet of Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. Even their secondary pieces are fit for a championship team. The offensive line is getting better and is unlikely to give up 50+ sacks, like Cutler was experiencing in the not to distant past. The defense has been adjusted to allow for more quarterback pressure and defensive backfield gambles. This team can either be very good, or they will get exposed on a weekly basis... The Minnesota Vikings are again trying to change their identity. During the early years of the last decade, they were air it out and hope the defense can generate a turnover or two. Then they changed to a run-first, stop the run organization. Now it appears they are shifting back to a big play offense, and a 4-3/3-4 hybrid defense with lots of blitzing. While the personnel isn’t quite there to be strong in this department, the defense has some nice pieces with Anthony Barr, Chad Greenway and Harrison Smith. They’re going to need to generate pressure, because I’m not sure that this defensive line can get to the quarterback. Matt Cassel should be able to keep them in games though... Green Bay only made one significant off-season acquisition. It may be enough. Julius Peppers has been one of the NFL’s best sack masters over the past ten years, but his time is growing short. They are planning on playing him 75-80% of the snaps at linebacker which should keep him fresh. For this took work all the time, they will need a huge year from Nick Perry, who has shown signs of potential. The offense will look similar with a large dependence on Eddie Lacy and Aaron Rodgers to win games. If these two perform to their capabilities, the division should once again belong to Green Bay... Detroit is really the only team in this division whose moves I wasn’t particularly fond of. While signing Golden Tate is like putting rims on an Escalade, I can’t help but think that maybe that money should have been spent on a Zane Beadles or some secondary help. Tate may take a little attention of off Calvin Johnson, but was that really necessary? Calvin can still catch balls in major traffic. I love the defensive line on this team, but couldn’t care less about the back seven. It may be one of the worst in football, and the reason I think Detroit gets stuck at the bottom of this division. Jim Caldwell will change the personality of this team, but with all of the fiery personalities (N.Suh, N.Fairley, M.Stafford) is that such a good idea?
Chicago Bears: QB 15 CO 15 DF 7 = 12.3
Detroit Lions: QB 16 CO 10 DF 9 = 11.7
Green Bay Packers QB 19 CO 17 DF 12 = 16
Minnesota Vikings QB 10 CO 12 DF 11 = 11
NFC East: Considered to be the worst division in football, but there are some players and organizational pieces here that could offer a surprise package in 2014. While we didn’t see it in the preseason, my prediction for this is the Washington Redskins. I know things went horribly wrong last season, and they appeared to be one of the worst teams in football. But a few things went against them. First, the head coach QUIT on the organization. Not saying that he was right or wrong, only that he did. Second, they went from playing a last place schedule (they went 10-6) to playing a first place schedule (they went 3-13) to once again playing a last place schedule. So there’s hope. Finally, every significant player on the team suffered a reduction in productivity outside of Pierre Garcon. RG3, Alfred Morris, London Fletcher, Ryan Kerrigan, DeAngelo Hall and many more. That really shouldn’t happen again. They also added some nice off-season pieces in DeSean Jackson and Jason Hatcher, and that might be enough to get this team back toward the top of the division instead of sitting on the bottom... The Philadelphia Eagles were very deceptive last year. While we believed that all they did was run high tempo and throw the ball around with Michael Vick and Nick Foles, the truth was they ran the ball better than any team in the league. LeSean McCoy led the NFL in rushing, and could very well do it again this year. For the Eagles to continue to be good and even challenge for the Super Bowl though, they need to get better on defense. Last in the NFL against the pass and 29th overall, are not signs that they are ready to take that next step in the playoffs. They added Nolan Carroll and Malcolm Jenkins, which wasn’t bad, but nor do I believe it to be enough to run away in this division... The New York Giants have fallen into an abyss. As recent as 3 years ago, they were as talented and deep as any team in football. Now, their offense is in shambles, there isn’t one offensive lineman on the team that I’d be willing to sign, and they are going to need Victor Cruz to be almost super human if they want to maintain this high-octane offense. The defense has been plucked and prodded and besides Jason Pierre-Paul, there is no one on this roster that is expected to get to the quarterback. A far cry from the days of Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. The secondary does look strong, and it’s going to need to be if the Giants want to win a lot of games this fall... The Dallas Cowboys really just missed their chance to be good. They had a group of players, all of whom were in their prime, and all of whom were able to fit under the current cap structure. They went 8-8 for three consecutive seasons, and now the wheels are starting to come off a little bit. DeMarcus Ware was a cap casualty. Brandon Carr gave up some huge plays last season and may have to fight for his job. Morris Claiborne was the wrong pick (I TOLD THEM SO!!!). Sean Lee is so unlucky. And as a result, the Cowboys already NFL worst defense could be even worse this season. They should consider themselves lucky that they don’t have to play the Denver Broncos, but with that said, a schedule that sees Seattle, New Orleans and San Francisco in the first 7 weeks is going to make this a very tough season for the Cowboys. They need to be good early because five of their final seven games will be away from AT&T stadium. And that’s not considering their annual detonation at the end of each season.
Note: For three years now, I have been begging for the Dallas Cowboys to get rid of Tony Romo. I don’t think he’s the worst quarterback in the league, but for me, there is nothing worse than a team that has all the pieces in place, but a quarterback that can’t get them over the hump. It’s why I was so sad that the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints couldn’t win Super Bowls while I was growing up. Reggie White, Jerome Brown and Clyde Simmons. Rickey Jackson, Sam Mills and Pat Swilling. Those teams were loaded; the quarterback to take them to the next level were not Randall Cunningham and Bobby Joe Hebert. Coming back to Dallas, two years ago instead of trading up for Morris Claiborne, I pleaded (even sent Jerry Jones a letter) for them to draft Robert Griffin III. Then this past season, while I’m not a fan, I really wanted to see Johnny Manziel in silver and blue. I don’t really care for the Cowboys, but the NFL is always just a little bit better, in my opinion, when they’re in the running for championships.
Dallas Cowboys QB 12 CO 13 DF 6 = 10.3
New York Giants QB 13 CO 14 DF 11 = 12.6
Philadelphia Eagles QB 12 CO 16 DF 10 = 12.6
Washington Redskins QB 13 CO 11 DF 14 = 12.6
NFC South: I’m not sure how I feel about the Carolina Panthers quite yet. While they were able to win 12 games last season, I never really felt like they were going to challenge for a Super Bowl ring. San Francisco proved my feelings correct, as they went into Charlotte and won quite easily. I really, really like 4 players on their team, but the rest of the team is entirely too average. Luke Kuechly, Star Lotulelei, Cam Newton and Greg Hardy are all franchise cornerstones. They also won’t have to think of replacing for them for years as they are all in their twenties. The problem for me is what happens when they all get extensions and money has to be squeezed out elsewhere. Cutting DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart will likely help, but I’m curious to see how the long-term plans for this team unfold... The New Orleans Saints squad looks set up for another Super Bowl run. They really walked into the perfect schedule by getting both the Packers and 49ers at home while traveling to Dallas and Chicago, where the games will be much more winnable than the other way around. They also see Baltimore and Cincinnati at home, while traveling to Pittsburgh and Cleveland. If they can win 4+ games in the division, I think they are capable of locking up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. We know how hard it is to play there, so they could be in line for a trip to Arizona next February. The offense looks changed, but will still run the same and as long as Jimmy Graham continues to excel, there’s no reason to be concerned. The defense has turned it around quickly and can be considered one of the NFL’s best. It might be the best secondary in the league if Patrick Robinson can hold his own opposite Keenan Lewis... The Atlanta Falcons were so close just a year ago. Now they look like an average team among the NFL heavyweights. While I think that they will once again challenge for the playoffs, I think their Super Bowl window has probably passed them by. They have Matt Ryan who is one of the league’s best when protected. He makes good decisions and doesn’t ever get really flustered. Devonta Freeman was an excellent draft pick and could make a big impact in his rookie season. The receivers are considered among the league’s best as a group, although it’ll be interesting to see which tight end catches on here. I think the defense will be in a little bit of transition as they adjust to the teachings and systems of Mike Nolan. I know the club really wanted J.Clowney, but there are some decent pieces that could keep this defense above water (Desmond Trufant, Paul Worrilow)... Tampa Bay could also be another surprise team in the NFC. Lovie Smith was a great hire, and the defense is growing into something similar that the Chicago Bears had developed during Smith’s tenure at Solider Field. While the secondary is young, Darrelle Revis shouldn’t be missed as much as you might think. Alterraun Verner is more than a capable replacement, and Jonathon Banks should be better in his second season as well. Mark Barron is getting close to the level that they thought he would be when he was taken 7th overall. Lavonte David may be the leader of the defense and he could be one of the best linebackers in the league by the end of the season. For all this talent, my favorite part of this defense is the defensive line quartet of Gerald McCoy, Clinton McDonald, Michael Johnson and Adrian Clayborn. They could make this team really special. The offense really comes down to the productivity of Doug Martin. If he performs anything close to his rookie season, they should run rather efficiently as an offense. If he’s injured or worse, non-productive, then it could be a depend-on-the-defense kind of a year in Tampa Bay. Still better off than quite a few teams, however.
Atlanta: QB 16 CO 16 DF 10 = 14
Carolina: QB 15 CO 13 DF 15 = 14.3
New Orleans: QB 20 CO 19 DF 16 = 18.3
Tampa Bay: QB 9 CO 15 DF 15 = 13
NFC West: Funny how quickly things change in football. Remember when the Seattle Seahawks won this division at 7-9? The St. Louis Rams were 1-15 that season and the S.F. 49ers and Arizona Cardinals weren’t very good either. Now... all four teams probably have playoff aspirations and the Seahawks and 49ers are expecting to be in the Super Bowl this February. I really don’t care for the Seattle Seahawks, but I like what Pete Carroll has done there. It’s really probably the way that every NFL coach should approach their job. When he first got there, he literally changed the entire squad within 24 months. Matt Hasselbeck was removed, Marshawn Lynch was traded for, and the transformation had begun. Now, they have probably the most talented roster in the league, and that’s after losing a number of players in free agency. I think that they will have a hard time repeating as they not only play this division six times, but they drew the AFC west as well, meaning games against the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers, all playoff teams from a year ago. They let Golden Tate walk to Detroit, which I consider surprising, when taking into account that Percy Harvin gave them one regular season game last year. The drafting of Paul Richardson is intriguing; he’s got some Az-Zahir Hakim in him. We all know how wonderful the defense is, and it’s one of the best. But what we don’t know is how they can afford to keep all these great players once Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and Bruce Irvin need to get paid. That should be just as fun to watch... Arizona may also have something to say about Super Bowl aspirations. A number of their players are currently in the primes of their career and this could shape up to be a big season for them. It starts with Carson Palmer who is finally getting the love again. I’ve always liked his size and arm, but felt like he never took his game to the next level when he needed to with the Bengals. He’s got numerous weapons in Arizona and just received another jewel with the drafting of Troy Niklas. The offensive line should be great with the inclusions of Jonathan Cooper and Jared Veldheer, free agency’s best offensive tackle. Cooper was slotted to be a day 1 starter last year, until he broke his leg. For as good as the offense is, it will be the defense that determines whether they play in February. Calais Campbell may be the most underrated lineman in football. He brings it on every play, and has been at the probowl level for a few seasons now. His inside partner Darnell Dockett is just as talented, and with Dan Williams clogging lanes, they could really do damage this season. The eight players behind them are all gifted athletes and if Deone Bucannon can make a difference instantly, this team will challenge for AFC west supremacy... My markings of the St. Louis Rams have changed considerably over the past week. I had them penciled in for one of the toughest outs in football before the injury to Sam Bradford, ending his season. Now, I think their entire offensive philosophy has to change, and they may just try to run the ball down teams throats a la New York Jets (2010-13). It is a system that could work in any other division, but I can’t see them winning more than 4 games this year. It’s a shame; now they might have entered themselves in the Jameis Winston-Marcus Mariota sweepstakes as opposed to continuing with Bradford. The defense could reach the NFL’s elite rather quickly; the pass rush is already there, now they just need big plays from the backfield. They have my favorite special teams trio in the league, between having Greg Zuerlein at kicker, Johnny Hekker at punter, and Tavon Austin returning kicks... The San Francisco 49ers may be at the end of their window. It’s a curious situation; Jim Harbaugh has yet to receive an extension, but many believe that he may not want one. How this team hasn’t already won a Super Bowl is beyond me. I understand that they were possibly a Richard Sherman tip away from also beating the Broncos in the Super Bowl, but fumbling it away to the Giants two years ago, then not finishing their comeback against the Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII. I just think that a team this talented, shouldn’t be losing so many big games so closely. And if we take a look at their team, this might be the last season of hope. While Kaepernick may continue to get better, or this might be the peak, steady runner Frank Gore, reliable Anquan Boldin and huge target Vernon Davis are all starting to slow down. The offensive line was built to peak around this time, and they have. The defense was exceptional two years ago, really good last year, and is now beginning to have question marks this season. Aldon Smith will miss half a season. My favorite defender in the entire league Navarro Bowman may never be the same after his gruesome injury. Chris Culliver has to come back from a torn ACL, which is really hard to do for a cornerback. I just believe that all signs point to a final season from the 49ers, and if they don’t do it this year, the whole thing could be demolished.
Arizona: QB 14 CO 16 DF 18 = 16
San Francisco QB 15 CO 17 DF 16 = 16
St. Louis: QB (S.Hill) 5 CO 17 DF 16 = 12.6
Seattle: QB 16 CO 19 DF 19 = 18
According to NTN the five best team situations are:
New Orleans Saints – 18.3
Seattle Seahawks – 18.0
Denver Broncos – 17.0
New England Patriots – 17.0
Green Bay Packers/San Francisco 49ers/Arizona Cardinals - 3 way tie at 16.0
The five worst team situations are:
Miami Dolphins – 9.6
Oakland Raiders – 10.0
Dallas Cowboys – 10.3
Tennessee Titans – 10.6
Cleveland Browns – 10.6
The lowest ranked team I've ever had make the Super Bowl (Since 1986, my first year as a fan) were the 1994 San Diego Chargers who rated out at 11.6. The highest ranked team I had were the 1990 San Francisco 49ers who ranked out at 19.6.
My playoff predictions: (I picked every game and this is how it turned out)
AFC: New England 1, Indianapolis 2, Denver 3, Cincinnati 4, Baltimore 5, Houston 6
NFC: New Orleans 1, Seattle 2, Green Bay 3, Washington 4, Carolina 5, Arizona 6
Houston at Denver – Denver
Baltimore at Cincinnati – Baltimore
Arizona at Green Bay – Green Bay
Carolina at Washington – Carolina
Denver at Indianapolis – Denver
Baltimore at New England – New England
Green Bay at Seattle – Seattle
Carolina at New Orleans – New Orleans
Denver at New England – New England
Seattle at New Orleans – New Orleans
New England vs New Orleans
I never predict the Super Bowl winner, as I don’t want to let myself down if I actually get it right. I have gotten at least one right since 2011, and even called the San Francisco/Baltimore Super Bowl! I usually never pick both #1’s, but these two are so hard to beat at home. Here’s to another correct pair of picks!
Facebook comment, text, blog comment or tweet me back your picks! I’m curious to see who everyone has in Super Bowl 49!
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