NFL Blog 2015
I’ve been looking forward to
this season almost as soon as Malcolm Butler intercepted that pass. There was a
lot of unfinished business left for a number of teams, and I think we, as fans,
will be in store for some of the most exciting football that our generation has
ever seen. The Cowboys have a reason to be motivated. The Packers have a reason
to be motivated. The Colts have a reason to be motivated. The Broncos,
Chargers, Eagles, Seahawks all have reasons too. While I will never consider
myself a fan of the salary cap ideals, I will concede defeat this year as I
think 20+ teams could have a say in who lifts the Lombardi trophy at the end of
the season.
Spent the
last couple of weeks working on my formula, and I decided to do a little something
different for this season. While I still ranked all 32 teams based on the NTN
(Nate’s Theory of the NFL), there is definitely more to it than that (Although
I was pretty pleased that I selected 8 of the 12 playoff teams correctly last
year using that formula). Over the last 7 days, I’ve also scoured over every
team’s depth chart, coaching changes and play calling statistics and used that
information to come up with the standings that I believe will shine through by
the end of the season. In comparison, they are pretty close, but I think it
reiterates the fact that a great head coach, a quality and healthy NFL
franchise QB, and a sturdy defense is what’s necessary to win in today’s NFL.
Enjoy the season all, and good luck to your teams!
NTN: The formula that I use to determine the likelihood of
whether an NFL Franchise can win a Super Bowl. See below for the scoring and
formula.
20/20/20 – I rate three sections of an organization on a
scale from 1-20. 1 constitutes a team
that needs an immediate concentration of improvement for that position. 20 represents the best at their position for
their time.
The first section is quarterback presentation. This rates everything including: a
quarterback’s arm strength and accuracy, to leading his teammates to victory,
and how capable they can be the face of the franchise. I believe that this is the most important
position in sports, and therefore the difference between having a 1 or a 20 can
mean multiple championships, and large revenue streams.
The second section is coaching capabilities. This rates everything including: game day
preparation, media involvement, motivational tactics, and general managing
skills. A coach that can provide a large
number in this category can give teams the expectation of a super bowl
appearance year in and year out, and give any organization credibility with
their arrival.
The final section is defensive schematics. This rates everything including: talent
level, discipline, awareness, evolution of defensive tactics, turnover
capability, and leadership skills. A
team that can shut down both aspects of an opposing offense, while giving their
team the best opportunity to win a game is going to rate very highly in this
category.
QB
1 – Immediate opportunity to improve. Playoffs are likely impossible.
5 – Capable of flashes of success. Should improve position as soon as possible.
10 – Solid starter.
Playoffs wouldn’t be a surprise.
Super Bowl would.
15 – Team can begin to have Super Bowl expectations. Can continue with this guy.
20 – Super Bowl or bust.
This guy makes team and organization better.
Coach
1 – Fired no later than season’s end. Lost both players and organizations
faith. Move on.
5 – Capable of winning games.
May hit on draft picks periodically.
Keeps job for 2+ yrs
10 – Doesn’t give away football games. Good eye for talent. Playoff potential.
15 – Winner. Gets to
the playoffs about 50-75% of the time.
Teams covet these types.
20 – This guy can be face of organization. Leaves on own terms. Instant credibility.
Defense
1 – A mess everywhere.
Gives up both big plays and long drives. Doesn’t change games.
5 – Might help the offense, but generally hurts
organization. No long-term value.
10 – Can stop most QB’s from great success. Must game plan for some of the talent.
15 – Quality and depth.
Force’s offensive to make many adjustments. Can win games.
20 – Very difficult to move ball against. Terrific vs both pass and run. Generates turnovers and scores points.
NFC East NTN NFC
East Study
1. New England 18 1. New England
(2)
2. Buffalo 13 2. Miami (6)
3. Miami 12 3. Buffalo
(*)
4. N.Y. Jets 9.3 4. N.Y. Jets
NFC West NTN NFC West Study
1. Denver 15.6 1. Denver (3)
2. Kansas City
12.6 2. San
Diego (*)
3. San Diego
12.6 3. Kansas
City (*)
4. Oakland 10 4. Oakland
(*)
NFC South NTN NFC
South Study
1. Indianapolis
15.6 1. Indianapolis (1)
2. Houston 10.6 2. Houston
(*)
3. Jacksonville
9.3 3. Tennessee
4. Tennessee 8 4. Jacksonville
NFC North NTN NFC
North Study
1. Baltimore 16 1. Baltimore (4)
2. Pittsburgh 14 2. Cincinnati (5)
3. Cincinnati
12.6 3. Pittsburgh
(*)
4. Cleveland 7 4. Cleveland
* - Playoff contention until the final week or two of the
season
What I’ve learned from the AFC: Essentially, Miami
and Cincinnati have running games
that can get them to the playoffs regardless of how poor I think their coaching
situations might be. Marvin Lewis has proved he’s a great regular season coach,
but I can’t raise him above 13 until he proves he can win a significant playoff
game for that organization. Miami
has a decent QB, coach and defense, but I think they win through their
offensive weaponry. Jordan Cameron, Jarvis Landry, Lamar Miller and DaVante
Parker are some nice pieces that could get them that coveted 6th
seed. I think it comes down to Pittsburgh, San Diego, Houston and Miami, but
Pittsburgh’s schedule is brutal, Houston needs a little more offensive talent,
and the Chargers could be distracted by the L.A. negotiations. The Raiders
crash out with losses in their final four games. I still think the top 4 in the
AFC are really strong, and they should be the final four standing, at least for
one more season.
NFC East NTN NFC
East Study
1. N.Y. Giants 13.3 1.
Philly (4)
2. Dallas 12.6 2. Dallas (5)
3. Philly 12.3 3.
N.Y. Giants (*)
4. Washington
8.3 4. Washington
NFC West NTN NFC
West Study
1. Seattle 18 1. Seattle (1)
2. St. Louis
13.6 2. Arizona (*)
3. Arizona 13 3. St.
Louis (*)
4. San Francisco
10.6 4. San
Francisco
NFC South NTN NFC
South Study
1. New Orleans
14 1. Carolina (3)
2. Carolina 13 2. New
Orleans (6)
3. Atlanta 11 3. Atlanta (*)
4. Tampa Bay Tampa
Bay
NFC North NTN NFC
North Study
1. Green Bay
15.6 1. Green
Bay (2)
2. Minnesota
12 2. Minnesota (*)
3. Detroit 10.6 3. Detroit (*)
4. Chicago 9.3 4. Chicago
What I’ve learned from the NFC: It stacked up pretty closely
to the top 6 teams, although in a different order. The Rams and Giants should
be in over the Eagles and Cowboys, but I just think with the NFC East drawn up
against the NFC South that they will have a few more wins come out of that
division. The Giants, Vikings, and Cardinals were all 9-7, so that shows you
just how close it really was. Hell, even the Lions and Rams were 8-8 based on
the games that I picked. It could literally come down to twelve teams for six
playoff spots which is pretty crazy. However, if you look at the head coaches
and defenses of the four teams that won’t be in playoff contention and the
picture is pretty clear. The Buccaneers probably have the best defense of the
bunch, and it’s okay but nothing special. Jim Tomsula is a tough guy to
critique, because I haven’t much to base him off of. But the fact that about
50% of his side of the roster is no longer there, must say a little bit. I
think the 49ers struggle mightily this year.
Players that I think jump out at us this season:
QB: Ryan Tannehill – He
understands his own strengths and weaknesses far better than I thought he ever
would, and he avoids the rush well too. I don’t think he’ll ever carry that
magical deep ball and he can’t pinpoint where receivers are going to be a la
Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, but he doesn’t get down on himself, and believes
he can make any throw inside of 20 yards.
QB: Philip Rivers – While he may
never win a Super Bowl, and we never debate about his elite-ness, this is the
year he solidifies himself as a top 10 QB in the NFL. He’s never had the best weapons
in the league at his disposal, but this year I think he does well spreading it
around with all the talented depth on the roster.
QB: Cam Newton – I gave him a 13, which equates to premature Super Bowl
expectations. That’s about where I put him, but if he can increase his grade to
the 16-17 area of a Russell Wilson, the Panthers could be in that next level.
RB: Jeremy Hill – Of all the
extremely young guys (because Eddie Lacy and Le’Veon Bell are now just young), I
think he has the most talent. Loved him at LSU, and he might peak around the 1,500
yard mark which would be great for Andy Dalton and company.
RB: Todd Gurley – Wish he hadn’t
gotten injured as I think he has the skill level of an Adrian Peterson or
Marshawn Lynch. I’ve only ever been this excited about 5 running backs entering
the league, and the other 3 (Adrian, Marshall Faulk, Fred Taylor, as Ki-Jana
Carter doesn’t count) had some great careers.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins – As a Packers
fan, I almost crapped my pants when I saw that he was available for the
Minnesota Vikings to select in the 2013 NFL draft. Imagine my surprise when
they took Shariff Floyd instead. Fast forward 2 years, and he might be one of
the best in the NFL by the end of this season.
WR: Markus Wheaton – All signs
point to the same success that previous and current Steelers wide receivers
Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, and Martavis Bryant have
received. With Bryant out for 4 games, I think Ben makes Wheaton the new star.
DE: William Hayes – We all know
and are familiar with Chris Long and Robert Quinn. What happens when one of
them gets hurt? Look no further than William Hayes, who could probably start
for 25 other NFL teams this season. 7 sacks in limited snaps last year. Could
and should get more this time around.
DT: Aaron Donald - Yes, another
Rams defensive lineman. This is a little bit different though. Hayes should be on everyone’s radar by the end of the season; Donald could be on the All-Pro
team by the end of the season. Best motor in the league as far as I’m
concerned.
CB: Patrick Peterson – I know that
Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis and Joe Haden get all the cred, but I can’t
understand why everyone sleeps on PP. It’s okay though; he’s a diabetic and
didn’t have the correct medication to play in the league last year. Still made everyone’s
top 10 list. This year, with the correct medication and sugar levels, he floats
up to the top.
S: T.J. Ward– Everyone (at least
on Twitter) knows how obsessed I am with Kam Chancellor. I couldn’t be more
pleased that he’s currently on the sidelines as I think he is the key component
for the Seahawks defense. T.J. Ward probably means as much to the Denver
Broncos. I know they fell apart in the Colts playoff game last year, but I
think if they are to get back to the Super Bowl and give Peyton Manning the
white horse, it’s going to start with T.J. Ward having a career year.
S: Eric Berry – Not sure if he
ever reaches the levels he was at prior to Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, but he certainly
deserves a round of applause just for getting back on the field. I bet he
starts too.
Award Predictions
MVP: Tom Brady. Well, he’s pissed.
OPoY: Aaron Rodgers. While I want
to give it to Sammy Bradford cause I think he hits 4,000 yards which is awesome
all things considered, I think Aaron gets 5,000 and 35 scores which are pretty
figures. The NFL hates giving back to back MVP awards, so he’ll get this one
instead. And I think Tom wins 1 more game.
DPoY: J.J. Watt. I want to pick
other guys, but I want to be right too.
ORoY: Nelson Agholor. I also want
to give it to Amari Cooper, but Philly’s offensive situation is miles better.
Plus, he’s equipped to be the #1 WR in Chip Kelly’s offense already so the
numbers will show.
DRoY: Shaq Thompson. Luke Kuechly
will allow him freedom to roam, and with all his booming hits on Sports Center
Coach of the Year: Chip Kelly.
Because I have the Vikings just missing playoff spot #6, I believe Kelly has to
get it. For all the ridicule, interesting personnel decisions, accusations of
favor by former players and all the media hacks going after him, I have to think most of it will disappear with the NFC East in his
back pocket. If Zimmer does get the #6 though (or 5), I’d give it to him. His
off-season was just as brutal (AP), and he gets him on the field happy. (We
think)
Comeback Player of the Year: This
is tough. Only because it’s 2 guys. If Sam Bradford throws for 4,000, I’ll give
it to him. If Adrian rushes for 1,500+, he takes the trophy. If they both
happen (and they very well could), I’ll consider it a tie. Eric Berry finishes
3rd for getting back onto the field.
Playoffs
AFC:
AFC Champion: Indy
NFC:
NFC Champion: Green Bay
Just teasing, but I didn't want to spoil my picks at the introduction...
Super Bowl 50: Green Bay Indianapolis
Champion: Indianapolis
** - If you are interested in seeing how I graded out each
of the 3 categories and why, shoot me a message and I’ll send over the results.
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