Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Dream Jobs (For Myself)

Nate’s 9: Top Dream Jobs

I think everyone would presume that all nine jobs would somehow correlate with the wide world of sports. Not so, I say! Only eight of the following nine have something to do with the world’s greatest leisure. I claim to be a little diverse.

Honorable Mention: After looking up the top 500 careers available to college graduates, I came to the conclusion that there is a ton of work that could be enjoyable doing (and making that cheddar). A big sorry to the following careers that couldn’t quite get into single digits: International Flight Pilot, Video Game Creator, Undercover FBI Agent, Disney Staffer, Malone’s Server, Tour Guide to Westminster Abbey (not just any tour guide), Screenplay Writer, Youth Pastor, and Portfolio Manager (for the rich, naturally).

#9. Professional Athlete. While it’s one of the most difficult careers to get into, and once you’re in, the length of time playing is extremely short, but I do believe that playing sports is the way to go. If you’re one of the fortunate that can make it to the top, a contract can set you up for a very long time. The travel would also be fun, and challenging yourself against the best would be rewarding and self-fulfilling. Also, most athletes look like Greek Gods which is pleasing in and of itself.  The only downside as far as I’m concerned are all the salads, fish, oxygen tanks, cold baths and protein shakes that are required of top athletes to stay in the best playing shape. I need my red meat and warm blankets.

#8. Author. Probably the most realistic of all my top dream jobs. What do I actually have now that my children are all signed up in school? Time. Not enough to write true novels, but I could improve on that father memoir that I have been working on, and I enjoy dabbling in a little bit of fiction too. I’m too much of a self-critic to really take this position seriously, but I think if I had the right financial backing, plus more of this free time that I’m still getting used to, I could enjoy this life as an author.

#7. Freelance Photographer. I looked up the average income of someone that does freelance and it said $23,000. So clearly this isn’t a dream for someone that wants to be rich. Or even comfortable. However, I do think it is one of the most rewarding jobs out there as you are essentially creating memories for families, school children, friends, wedding parties, etc. I’ve always enjoyed taking photography classes in school, minus the dark room criteria of course, and I enjoy seeking out beautiful landmarks and other nature attractions. I also deal with controlled chaos on almost a daily basis, so dealing with other people’s children would not be that big of a deal.

#6. Music Writer. When I was a teenager, I thought I could write a song. Then Blue-Dah-Bah-Dee-Dah-Bah-Die came out and I gave up all hope of making it in the music industry. I don’t understand how that song made millions, nor do I think I want to. I enjoy the complexity of music, and being able to match lyrics to a wonderful sound. I’m not sure that’s what the industry is all about anymore, but if music decides to take a left turn during the next generation of sound, I would love to write and be a part of the next Woodstock/British Invasion/Disco Fever/Harlem World production.

#5. Informant. I would love to give private information out for paychecks/reduction of evil doings a la Red Reddington of the Blacklist fame. While I know that the show exaggerates the on goings of what really happens in international espionage, it sure would be fun to get caught up in the world’s underground affairs of military warfare, government plotting, and the nine. I think I could do it too, as most would consider my positive personality to orchestrate trust in all of my relationships. Then, boom, backstabbed!

#4. Sports Scout. Probably the job that plays to my strengths the most. I love sports, I love discovering the mental traits that determines whether one person can become a star where as the other person fails, and I enjoy meeting families and promoting the ideals that I love, etc...  If it didn’t seem so ridiculous, I could draw up a chart that would show the strengths and weaknesses of each one of the soccer players I currently coach. I can tell you where I would put them if their skills translated to that of an 11v11 soccer structure. I also think I have a keen sense in the world of American football as well, but if I were to make it into this dream field, I think soccer would have to be my cake. And I’m going to eat it too.

#3. Movie Critic. As a child, I probably saw about fifteen films from the ages of 5-12. Even beyond that I likely only saw another thirty until I graduated from high school. Between sports, video games, hanging with friends and causing trouble, I just never had the time to watch movies, and my family wasn’t the type of family to go to the movies together and enjoy a film. The first time I remember going to a movie with my mother was when we saw “Mo Money” with the Wayans brothers and I was a 12 year old watching an R rated movie (whoops, Mom). I thought that they were the funniest comedians on In Living Color (They were the funniest comedians on In Living Color, but it’s closer than I had previously thought), and it would translate into a good movie. And that’s when I became a movie critic. Needless to say, Sara and I have probably watched 300+ movies during our time together, and now I’ve had the chance to rate all the great classics as well as all the TNT crap they show on the weekends.

#2. CEO of Amazon. Essentially, the boss (Jeffrey Bezos) of what I believe is the best run company in the United States. They have always stayed fresh; they increase their revenue annually, and have a happy and motivated staff (Reuters). I would just step in and pretty much ruin everything... or... or, come up with some new and innovative ideas that would keep the company ahead of the market and upward onward towards global domination. I’ll take the chance to go either way. Plus, at last checking, this position pays $1,681,840 per year.

#1. Athletic Director. Pretty easy. I would love to oversee the entire sports institution at a large university. Not that I’m saying the job is easy, on the contrary, I think it would be one of the toughest jobs on this list. I only mean that it’s one of the few jobs available in which I believe that I would whistle on my way to work every morning. Hell, I wouldn’t even need to leave the office. I would love to decide what sports get how much cash, and what sponsors would have their name in what aptly named sports venues with games that are shown on NCAA based television networks...(how ridiculous that money influences everything, but the college athlete makes how much money?). I’m not much for a power struggle which is where a lot of athletic directors and coaches get into trouble. (You can look up the examples, but they are frequent and well-known). It’s one of the reasons why I think the University of Wisconsin is so successful (Barry Alvarez). He’s a pretty low key guy, who understands what types of personalities are needed in the Midwest. He also understands which coaches can work with him in harmony and generate a constructive staff so that even when the head coach gets the itch to go elsewhere, the Wisconsin machine continues to hum. He has for all intents and purposes, had the perfect career. He took a horrible program to the Rose Bowl in 4 seasons. He made back to back Rose Bowls in years nine and ten. Two losing seasons in thirteen years. Moved up to A.D. and oversaw the Badgers resurgence and two final four appearances in 2014 and 2015 in men’s basketball. He helped lead the NCAA to get rid of the horribus annus Bowl Championship Series (BCS), and now sits on the 13 person playoff committee. (Which. Was. Amazing!) So if I can do all this for the University of Minnesota, not only will I have no professional regrets, but I could also bring pride to a program that hasn’t had any since before they kicked me out for my robust 1.6 GPA way back in my youth (1997 Final Four... oh wait). It’s time to get to work.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

NFL Season 2015

NFL Blog 2015

            I’ve been looking forward to this season almost as soon as Malcolm Butler intercepted that pass. There was a lot of unfinished business left for a number of teams, and I think we, as fans, will be in store for some of the most exciting football that our generation has ever seen. The Cowboys have a reason to be motivated. The Packers have a reason to be motivated. The Colts have a reason to be motivated. The Broncos, Chargers, Eagles, Seahawks all have reasons too. While I will never consider myself a fan of the salary cap ideals, I will concede defeat this year as I think 20+ teams could have a say in who lifts the Lombardi trophy at the end of the season.

            Spent the last couple of weeks working on my formula, and I decided to do a little something different for this season. While I still ranked all 32 teams based on the NTN (Nate’s Theory of the NFL), there is definitely more to it than that (Although I was pretty pleased that I selected 8 of the 12 playoff teams correctly last year using that formula). Over the last 7 days, I’ve also scoured over every team’s depth chart, coaching changes and play calling statistics and used that information to come up with the standings that I believe will shine through by the end of the season. In comparison, they are pretty close, but I think it reiterates the fact that a great head coach, a quality and healthy NFL franchise QB, and a sturdy defense is what’s necessary to win in today’s NFL. Enjoy the season all, and good luck to your teams!

NTN: The formula that I use to determine the likelihood of whether an NFL Franchise can win a Super Bowl. See below for the scoring and formula.

20/20/20 – I rate three sections of an organization on a scale from 1-20.  1 constitutes a team that needs an immediate concentration of improvement for that position.  20 represents the best at their position for their time. 

The first section is quarterback presentation.  This rates everything including: a quarterback’s arm strength and accuracy, to leading his teammates to victory, and how capable they can be the face of the franchise.  I believe that this is the most important position in sports, and therefore the difference between having a 1 or a 20 can mean multiple championships, and large revenue streams. 

The second section is coaching capabilities.  This rates everything including: game day preparation, media involvement, motivational tactics, and general managing skills.  A coach that can provide a large number in this category can give teams the expectation of a super bowl appearance year in and year out, and give any organization credibility with their arrival. 

The final section is defensive schematics.  This rates everything including: talent level, discipline, awareness, evolution of defensive tactics, turnover capability, and leadership skills.  A team that can shut down both aspects of an opposing offense, while giving their team the best opportunity to win a game is going to rate very highly in this category.

QB
1 – Immediate opportunity to improve.  Playoffs are likely impossible.
5 – Capable of flashes of success.  Should improve position as soon as possible.
10 – Solid starter.  Playoffs wouldn’t be a surprise.  Super Bowl would.
15 – Team can begin to have Super Bowl expectations.  Can continue with this guy.
20 – Super Bowl or bust.  This guy makes team and organization better.

Coach
1 – Fired no later than season’s end.  Lost both players and organizations faith.  Move on.
5 – Capable of winning games.  May hit on draft picks periodically.  Keeps job for 2+ yrs
10 – Doesn’t give away football games.  Good eye for talent.  Playoff potential.
15 – Winner.  Gets to the playoffs about 50-75% of the time.  Teams covet these types.
20 – This guy can be face of organization.  Leaves on own terms.  Instant credibility.

Defense
1 – A mess everywhere.  Gives up both big plays and long drives. Doesn’t change games.
5 – Might help the offense, but generally hurts organization.  No long-term value.
10 – Can stop most QB’s from great success.  Must game plan for some of the talent.
15 – Quality and depth.  Force’s offensive to make many adjustments.  Can win games.
20 – Very difficult to move ball against.  Terrific vs both pass and run.  Generates turnovers and scores points.



NFC East NTN                       NFC East Study
1. New England 18                 1. New England (2)
2. Buffalo 13                           2. Miami  (6)
3. Miami 12                              3. Buffalo (*)
4. N.Y. Jets 9.3                       4. N.Y. Jets

NFC West NTN                     NFC West Study
1. Denver 15.6                         1. Denver  (3)
2. Kansas City 12.6                  2. San Diego (*)
3. San Diego 12.6                    3. Kansas City (*)
4. Oakland 10                          4. Oakland (*)

NFC South NTN                     NFC South Study
1. Indianapolis 15.6                  1. Indianapolis  (1)
2. Houston 10.6                       2. Houston (*)
3. Jacksonville 9.3                    3. Tennessee
4. Tennessee 8                         4. Jacksonville

NFC North NTN                     NFC North Study
1. Baltimore 16             1. Baltimore   (4)
2. Pittsburgh 14                        2. Cincinnati    (5)
3. Cincinnati 12.6                     3. Pittsburgh (*)
4. Cleveland 7                          4. Cleveland
* - Playoff contention until the final week or two of the season

What I’ve learned from the AFC: Essentially, Miami and Cincinnati have running games that can get them to the playoffs regardless of how poor I think their coaching situations might be. Marvin Lewis has proved he’s a great regular season coach, but I can’t raise him above 13 until he proves he can win a significant playoff game for that organization. Miami has a decent QB, coach and defense, but I think they win through their offensive weaponry. Jordan Cameron, Jarvis Landry, Lamar Miller and DaVante Parker are some nice pieces that could get them that coveted 6th seed. I think it comes down to Pittsburgh, San Diego, Houston and Miami, but Pittsburgh’s schedule is brutal, Houston needs a little more offensive talent, and the Chargers could be distracted by the L.A. negotiations. The Raiders crash out with losses in their final four games. I still think the top 4 in the AFC are really strong, and they should be the final four standing, at least for one more season.

NFC East NTN                       NFC East Study
1. N.Y. Giants 13.3                  1. Philly   (4)
2. Dallas 12.6                           2. Dallas   (5)
3. Philly 12.3                            3. N.Y. Giants  (*)
4. Washington 8.3                    4. Washington

NFC West NTN                      NFC West Study
1. Seattle 18                             1. Seattle  (1)
2. St. Louis 13.6                       2. Arizona  (*)
3. Arizona 13                           3. St. Louis  (*)
4. San Francisco 10.6               4. San Francisco

NFC South NTN                     NFC South Study
1. New Orleans 14                   1. Carolina  (3)
2. Carolina 13                          2. New Orleans   (6)
3. Atlanta 11                            3. Atlanta  (*)
4. Tampa Bay 10.3                   4. Tampa Bay

NFC North NTN                     NFC North Study
1. Green Bay 15.6                    1. Green Bay   (2)
2. Minnesota 12                       2. Minnesota  (*)
3. Detroit 10.6                          3. Detroit  (*)
4. Chicago 9.3                          4. Chicago

What I’ve learned from the NFC: It stacked up pretty closely to the top 6 teams, although in a different order. The Rams and Giants should be in over the Eagles and Cowboys, but I just think with the NFC East drawn up against the NFC South that they will have a few more wins come out of that division. The Giants, Vikings, and Cardinals were all 9-7, so that shows you just how close it really was. Hell, even the Lions and Rams were 8-8 based on the games that I picked. It could literally come down to twelve teams for six playoff spots which is pretty crazy. However, if you look at the head coaches and defenses of the four teams that won’t be in playoff contention and the picture is pretty clear. The Buccaneers probably have the best defense of the bunch, and it’s okay but nothing special. Jim Tomsula is a tough guy to critique, because I haven’t much to base him off of. But the fact that about 50% of his side of the roster is no longer there, must say a little bit. I think the 49ers struggle mightily this year.

Players that I think jump out at us this season:
QB: Ryan Tannehill – He understands his own strengths and weaknesses far better than I thought he ever would, and he avoids the rush well too. I don’t think he’ll ever carry that magical deep ball and he can’t pinpoint where receivers are going to be a la Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, but he doesn’t get down on himself, and believes he can make any throw inside of 20 yards.

QB: Philip Rivers – While he may never win a Super Bowl, and we never debate about his elite-ness, this is the year he solidifies himself as a top 10 QB in the NFL. He’s never had the best weapons in the league at his disposal, but this year I think he does well spreading it around with all the talented depth on the roster.

QB: Cam Newton – I gave him a 13, which equates to premature Super Bowl expectations. That’s about where I put him, but if he can increase his grade to the 16-17 area of a Russell Wilson, the Panthers could be in that next level.

RB: Jeremy Hill – Of all the extremely young guys (because Eddie Lacy and Le’Veon Bell are now just young), I think he has the most talent. Loved him at LSU, and he might peak around the 1,500 yard mark which would be great for Andy Dalton and company.

RB: Todd Gurley – Wish he hadn’t gotten injured as I think he has the skill level of an Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch. I’ve only ever been this excited about 5 running backs entering the league, and the other 3 (Adrian, Marshall Faulk, Fred Taylor, as Ki-Jana Carter doesn’t count) had some great careers.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins – As a Packers fan, I almost crapped my pants when I saw that he was available for the Minnesota Vikings to select in the 2013 NFL draft. Imagine my surprise when they took Shariff Floyd instead. Fast forward 2 years, and he might be one of the best in the NFL by the end of this season.

WR: Markus Wheaton – All signs point to the same success that previous and current Steelers wide receivers Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, and Martavis Bryant have received. With Bryant out for 4 games, I think Ben makes Wheaton the new star.

DE: William Hayes – We all know and are familiar with Chris Long and Robert Quinn. What happens when one of them gets hurt? Look no further than William Hayes, who could probably start for 25 other NFL teams this season. 7 sacks in limited snaps last year. Could and should get more this time around.

DT: Aaron Donald - Yes, another Rams defensive lineman. This is a little bit different though. Hayes should be on everyone’s radar by the end of the season; Donald could be on the All-Pro team by the end of the season. Best motor in the league as far as I’m concerned.

CB: Patrick Peterson – I know that Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis and Joe Haden get all the cred, but I can’t understand why everyone sleeps on PP. It’s okay though; he’s a diabetic and didn’t have the correct medication to play in the league last year. Still made everyone’s top 10 list. This year, with the correct medication and sugar levels, he floats up to the top.

S: T.J. Ward– Everyone (at least on Twitter) knows how obsessed I am with Kam Chancellor. I couldn’t be more pleased that he’s currently on the sidelines as I think he is the key component for the Seahawks defense. T.J. Ward probably means as much to the Denver Broncos. I know they fell apart in the Colts playoff game last year, but I think if they are to get back to the Super Bowl and give Peyton Manning the white horse, it’s going to start with T.J. Ward having a career year.

S: Eric Berry – Not sure if he ever reaches the levels he was at prior to Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, but he certainly deserves a round of applause just for getting back on the field. I bet he starts too.

Award Predictions

MVP: Tom Brady. Well, he’s pissed.

OPoY: Aaron Rodgers. While I want to give it to Sammy Bradford cause I think he hits 4,000 yards which is awesome all things considered, I think Aaron gets 5,000 and 35 scores which are pretty figures. The NFL hates giving back to back MVP awards, so he’ll get this one instead. And I think Tom wins 1 more game.

DPoY: J.J. Watt. I want to pick other guys, but I want to be right too.

ORoY: Nelson Agholor. I also want to give it to Amari Cooper, but Philly’s offensive situation is miles better. Plus, he’s equipped to be the #1 WR in Chip Kelly’s offense already so the numbers will show.

DRoY: Shaq Thompson. Luke Kuechly will allow him freedom to roam, and with all his booming hits on Sports Center, people will flock to watch. And vote. (My boy Leonard Williams will be damn close. My other boy Dante Fowler will get it next year).

Coach of the Year: Chip Kelly. Because I have the Vikings just missing playoff spot #6, I believe Kelly has to get it. For all the ridicule, interesting personnel decisions, accusations of favor by former players and all the media hacks going after him, I have to think most of it will disappear with the NFC East in his back pocket. If Zimmer does get the #6 though (or 5), I’d give it to him. His off-season was just as brutal (AP), and he gets him on the field happy. (We think)

Comeback Player of the Year: This is tough. Only because it’s 2 guys. If Sam Bradford throws for 4,000, I’ll give it to him. If Adrian rushes for 1,500+, he takes the trophy. If they both happen (and they very well could), I’ll consider it a tie. Eric Berry finishes 3rd for getting back onto the field.

Playoffs

AFC:
Miami (6) at Denver (3) W: Denver
Cincinnati (5) at Baltimore (4) W: Baltimore

Baltimore (4) at Indianapolis (1) W: Indy
Denver (3) at New England (2) W: New England

New England (2) at Indy (1) W: All of us.  Just kidding. But this story if it happens!!!

AFC Champion: Indy

NFC:
New Orleans (6) at Carolina (3) W: Carolina
Dallas (5) at Philly (4) W: Dallas

Dallas (5) at Seattle (1) W: Dallas
Carolina (3) at Green Bay (2) W: Green Bay

Dallas (5) at Green Bay (2) W: I think it will be as tight as last year’s match. At Lambeau though...

NFC Champion: Green Bay



Just teasing, but I didn't want to spoil my picks at the introduction...

Super Bowl 50: Green Bay vs Indianapolis. I’ve wanted this since he entered the league in 2012 (Andrew Luck vs Aaron Rodgers), but unfortunately, I think he beats my favorite franchise too.

Champion: Indianapolis Colts


** - If you are interested in seeing how I graded out each of the 3 categories and why, shoot me a message and I’ll send over the results.