I didn't get every game wrong last week! Feels pretty good. Let's get to it.
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams
I still have a hard time not typing in St. Louis… seems like the most straight forward matchup of the weekend. Besides their hiccup at home against Minnesota, their terrible quarter against the Buccaneers, and an overtime mishap against the Colts, Green Bay played just about the perfect season. The offense was explosive and didn't rely on a singular weapon like I thought it might, Jaire Alexander was able to shut down one side of the field, and Adrian Amos played the backline almost perfectly and got a well deserved all-pro honor. They were really only vulnerable when the passing game wasn't working, and that didn't happen too often. Only the Carolina Panthers game comes to mind.
I really liked McVay's game plan for the Seahawks last week. Deliver no mistakes and an established run game, and most playoff games can be won. He understands that as well as anyone in the league, maybe more than anybody else. They got to the Super Bowl not with the arm of Jared Goff, but on the legs of Todd Gurley. Then they drafted the player that I thought would be the best rookie RB, Cam Akers, and while he had his struggles early on, this is his back field now. He is a mix of strength and speed, but sees the holes really well, and can carry the pile a yard or two. Damon Harrison will be a much needed player in this matchup. If Goff and Aaron Donald were 100%, I think this game goes down to the wire, but Matt LaFleur can match wits with McVay, and I think Aaron outplays whatever QB lines up on the other side.
Packers in a 28-17 win.
Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens
I know that there's a game that matches two NFL legends against each other happening this weekend - Baker Mayfield and Patty Mahomes - but this is the toughest game for me to predict. The quarterbacks are young, the running games are inconsistent, and outside of Mark Andrews and Stefon Diggs, there's not one playmaker in the passing game that I would count on in the late minutes of the game. I like both defenses just enough to keep the QB's honest, and not make this game a rout in favor of either side. Josh Allen did look good in Buffalo's first playoff win since I was a teenager… and a very young teenager at that. Voice cracking and everything. Thurman Thomas was my favorite player in the league at the time, nostalgia cracking at the seams. Baltimore had yet to exist then. Baltimore is built a little differently than Indianapolis, where Indy wanted to get to the QB, Baltimore wants you to throw, they blitz well, and that's how they take their risks. A turnover or two for Buffalo, and this game gets interesting. Josh Allen statistically punishes teams that try to blitz him. On the other side, Lamar Jackson had a beauty of a 4th quarter last week. It was a tight, emotional game, and I think he grew immensely from that moment. This is still a team that last year ran rampant through the AFC. Then they had a strange hiccup against the Titans, and they were gone.
I keep going back and forth on this game. Lamar plays brilliantly. Allen can't be stopped. Diggs will make Marcus Peters cry. Diggs is out of big time playoff moments. Neither team has the running game that can be successful in keeping the other quarterback of the field. I think the drives will be quick, and both teams will be looking for the big play. If there's anything I've learned over the years watching football, it's that you can't always have what the heart wants. I'm dying for Rodgers vs Allen. There's a possibility I might be left with Rodgers vs Lamar, or worse.
Ravens upset the Bills (sort of) 33-28.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns
These last few weeks have gone on for so long, that I've forgotten that for 3 months the Chiefs were the best team in football. They were lighting up teams every single game, and they were doing it with one of the most fluid passing games that I've ever seen. Then, it got a little tight with the Saints, and it got unusually interesting against the Falcons, before the last match of the season was a wash. And because of this, it feels like the Cleveland Browns have been the best team in football lately. National media? Cleveland Browns. Twitter? Cleveland Browns. Television? Cleveland Browns. Commercials? Baker Mayfield.
I have this uneasy feeling that all of this will end in a few days time. I think the Chiefs are rip roaring and ready to go, and I think the Browns' feel good. It has a bit of that feeling from last year when the Houston Texans came ready to play, jumped out to an absolutely ridiculous lead, and well. The Chiefs are the Super Bowl champions. Lest we forget, the Browns had a pretty similar lead against the Steelers last week, and let them get back into the game. Not in my wildest dreams do I see Patty Mahomes throwing 4 interceptions, and even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire sitting out, it really shouldn't be that difficult. Chuck a few to Travis Kelce, chuck a few to Tyreek Hill, and the job should be done.
Chiefs 42, Browns 31.
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I think if the Packers were eliminated, I would enjoy this more. Unfortunately for me, if the Rams win this weekend, I'm not going to want to watch another quarter of football. If the Pack win, I'm hoping for a slugfest. If we weren't around, I'd want 900 passing yards and 90 points.
These two teams have been very strange this season. At the beginning of the year, I thought they would be the two best teams in the NFC, and both of their matchups would be close. Instead, the Saints have just smashed the Buccaneers twice, and in the second game, it looked like Tom Brady was going to cry. I mean, it was really ugly. Almost as bad as thinking it was 3rd down, when it was actually 4th. But the Bucs have been resilient if nothing else. They added Antonio Brown and Leonard Fournette to positions of great strength, and really, it may have been unnecessary to do so. Tyler Johnson was doing just fine, and Ronald Jones is a horse. So now they have all these weapons and just one football for them. But it's Tom Brady, no one is complaining, and they must like their chances in round 3.
I do too, if I'm being honest. The Saints are a weird one for me. My Super Bowl pick back in September, they had signed Emmanuel Sanders and really looked like a well oiled machine. Then they laid an egg against the Raiders, lost at home to the Packers (which in hindsight was very costly), eeked out 3 point win after 3 point win, before dropping the two games late to the Eagles and Chiefs. Finally, in a playoff game where they could make a statement, they casually force Chicago's hand and escape with a victory. Not a convincing one, however. It was never in doubt, but they tried to make it so. So this is where it gets tricky. The Bucs seem to be firing on most of their cylinders, Tom looks good, play calling is sublime, and Washington never really stood a chance. New Orleans on the other hand, dallied, and dallied some more. Against a very, VERY average Chicago Bears team. But they've crushed the Bucs twice. With a flip of a coin…
Saints over the Bucs 28-24.
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