2 things are changing. In years past, I had created a formula in which I ranked the QB, coaching staff, and defense of said team, and then rated them on a scale of 1-20. While it was pretty effective (I usually guessed 8/12 playoff teams correctly per year), it didn't evaluate RB, WR and OL which in the case of the Kansas City Chiefs last year, made me look pretty bad. Second, I picked every single NFL game to give each team a record, and that was just a long and annoying headache. JJ Watt, Odell Beckham Jr, Aaron Rodgers, Dalvin Cook and all the other knees, collarbones, shoulders and feet made sure that picking week 17 before the start of week 1 doesn't really make any sense. So I will just evaluate what I know, pick my playoff teams, and go from there. I hope you all enjoy the new format. And most importantly, the new NFL season.
NFC East:
If Carson Wentz comes back and continues his progression to doing all the great Aaron Rodgers impressions, than the Philadelphia Eagles will be fine. If they have to depend on Nick Foles for an entire season, play one of the most difficult schedules in football, and take everyone's best shot, it might be a little different. If that happens, I actually like the New York Giants to step into the place of the Eagles. On paper, they had a great draft. They were able to take the best player available in the first 3 rounds, and plug them into a massive hole of need. Nate Solder and Will Hernandez were necessary if they want Eli to ride into the sunset instead of limp. Lorenzo Carter kept up with Roquan Smith on a lot of days at Georgia. If Saquon is as good as advertised, the Giants could be a potential division champion... this season. The Dallas Cowboys are in a strange place. They have the QB, RB and OL that could be the envy of 10+ teams in the league. They have a defense that should be able to keep the team in most games. But the NFL has become a passing league, and the Super Bowl was a great indication of what is required if a team is going to lift the Lombardi trophy. Dallas has Allen Hurns, Terrance Williams and Rico Gathers to threaten on offense, and Byron Jones, Kevon Frazier and Xavier Woods at the defensive end. A super bowl is a big ask of this group. The Washington Redskins are also a wild card in this division. They could potentially finish 1st (I'd put it at about 10%, however), or be dead last and competing for the #1 pick in next year's NFL draft. The Alex Smith signing would've been great if the team was ready to go the distance and were a QB away. Their running game is a big question mark (AP, anyone?) and Jamison Crowder works best from the slot. They gave up a top corner in Kendall Fuller in order to get Smith, and now it's Josh Norman and some guy lining up across from guys catching balls from Wentz and Manning. I just don't think the Redskins have pin pointed the right direction for the next couple of seasons.
1. Philadelphia Eagles *
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins
NFC South:
On draft night, I thought that the Atlanta Falcons were going to be the favorite's in the NFC. Picking Calvin Ridley to line up opposite Julio Jones, while keeping Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and Austin Hooper on team friendly contracts, made me believe that this team might be ready for the big time again. The only thing that I don't believe this team knows how to do is beat up another team. Their offense is all finesse, and their defense is fast... and stockpiled with loads of finesse. But will they hit anybody? Lots and lots of speed, but what happens when they run into the New Orleans Saints? I think every NFL fan saw it. The moment that the Saints knew they were going to beat the Vikings in Minneapolis, trounce the Eagles in Philadelphia, and go toe-to-toe with Tom Brady for a chance to win the Super Bowl back in Minneapolis. It happened with about 2 minutes to go. They moved the ball so well, and were frustrating Case Keenum and friends on the other side. Then, cue miracle. The Saints are still loaded. Alvin Kamara could be the top back in the league by the end of the year. Marcus Williams actually looks a good player, that just got lost in the biggest of moments. We'll see what kind of character the kid has on October 28th, when he returns to the scene of the crime. The line protects Brees admirably, and he has some weapons to find in Ted Ginn, Michael Thomas and Cameron Meredith. Even their kicking game is on point. An easier path to the Super Bowl would be made again, if they are able to go 3-0 vs the Carolina Panthers again. The Panthers also believe that they are a good football team, and they were, when they weren't going up against the Saints. They lost 6 games in 2017, 3 were to the gold and black. I think the Panthers like to attack on both sides of the ball, which is great and makes for entertaining football, but when the Saints do the same thing and better... I like the roster, but I feel like every single player on offense sans Greg Olsen still has a little more to offer than what they've shown in years past. Cam Newton has the talent and size to be one of the league's best. McCafferey has all the tools too, but left us a little wanting last season. Devin Funchess looks like Plaxico Burress, but executes like he's on the field for the first time. There is still enough talent, where I don't think they'll finish last, but only because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers keep shooting themselves in the foot. With a bazooka. It all started when they fired Lovie Smith after just 2 seasons, to go in a different direction. In doing so, they pissed off 11 defensive players, and they felt the need to Tweet their frustrations. You can still see the animosity among the players, and it's interesting that Dirk Koetter is still able to coach even though he's been 14-18 over 2 seasons and we haven't seen improvement from Jameis Winston. (My guy, I know) 12 months ago, I thought this would be a playoff team. Now all 3 division rivals have passed them, and the Bucs are the only team in the South that won't be thinking about the Super Bowl. It's a shame, really.
1. New Orleans Saints *
2. Atlanta Falcons *
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC North:
Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines. This division already looked to be the best in football, and home to two teams that both believe they can win the Super Bowl this season. And then, similar to a rabbit out of a hat, Khalil Mack is a Chicago Bears linebacker. It's a little strange, because to me it appears that the Bears think they are close to contending for at the very least a playoff place. Prior to the deal, I thought they were 2-3 years away, especially with Mitchell Trubisky only having 2 seasons under his belt (1 at North Carolina, 1 in the pros). I thought the weapons (Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel) were a bit of a reach, and their offensive line looks to be in disarray. I thought the strongest part of the team was LB, and then boom, the dynamic of the NFL shifted. Mack is the league's best defender, and he will share a field soon with the likes of Leonard Floyd and Roquan Smith. I'm sure he's drooling, as he gets to chase around the likes of Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. They too have made some interesting changes this year. Jimmy Graham is in and gives Rodgers his biggest red zone target he's ever had, but his best friend Jordy Nelson is gone. The offense isn't the question mark though, it's the talent on the other side of the ball, and how well they can adjust to the schemes of Mike Pettine. It's an aggressive style, but could be prone to big plays. Which we know the Packers give up a ton of. Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions know a thing or two about big plays. I really like the way their roster is set up, and they could be a surprise team this year. Stafford knows the offense inside and out, and now he has some weapons that will take a little of the pressure off. Kerryon Johnson should've been a 1st round pick the way he ran at Auburn. That pick was an absolute steal. The defense should be solid by all the pickups that Bob Quinn made. The only thing that makes me nervous for them is their beast of a schedule that includes the Minnesota Vikings twice. This might be the most complete team in football, if they are correct about Kirk Cousins. Last season with Case Keenum, there were moments when they were the most dominant team in the league. Then, the Saints came with heavy blitzes on defense and aerial attacks on offense. And Philadelphia took it one step further. A quick fix would be the health and success of Dalvin Cook, if he doesn't lose any of his explosiveness. Minnesota didn't let us see in the pre-season, so it will continue to be a question mark. The bigger fix would be to get back to simplicity on defense. While I understand that Zimmer likes to attack the A gaps, and send Harrison Smith frolicking around the line of scrimmage, I thought they were at their best when every man covered an area, and did it well. With all the talent, why so many tricks?
1. Minnesota Vikings *
2. Green Bay Packers *
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears
NFC West:
This division looks to be the easiest to predict, but looks can be deceiving. The Los Angeles Rams are the "most improved" team in the NFL from last season to this season. At least on paper. But if you asked most NFL fans if they wanted Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Sam Shields and Brandin Cooks on their roster, they would answer with a most resounding, YES! And I would agree, it looks pretty. But there are a LOT of personalities on this team, and one of them is head coach Sean McVay. This looks to be a soap opera in waiting, but I can grudgingly admit that the Rams could also win the Super Bowl with relative ease this season too. Thank goodness the San Francisco 49ers reached out to New England last season, and received their savior in QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Without that move, maybe this division is a little lopsided. But the 49ers are my favorite non-talked about team in football. They lost a really underrated player in Jerick McKinnon last week to a knee injury, as I think he was on his way to being a top 10 back. He finds holes well, catches the ball well and protects his quarterback. It'll be interesting to see if Alfred Morris and Matt Breida can make up for it. They drafted Garoppolo's blind side for the future in Mike McGlinchey and that was a huge coup. He can be for Jimmy what Nate Solder was for Tom Brady. Their defense has talent; if they can put it together, a playoff place isn't out of the question. The Seattle Seahawks have plenty of questions. They are host to quite possibly the most dynamic quarterback in the league in Russell Wilson, as he can beat teams with his legs, arm or intellect. He's a hard guy to beat in this league. Beyond that though, and it gets tricky. The personalities are mostly gone, and in their places are a bunch of players looking to take that extra step. Can Shaquill Griffin take Richard Sherman's place? Can Frank Clark match the engine of Michael Bennett's? If they can, Seattle still might have enough left in the tank. On the other hand, there is no denying the talent on the Arizona Cardinals. They might still be one of the most talented teams in the league... when they are healthy. They managed to go 8-8 without David Johnson last year, and that shows you the type of talent this team has. Sam Bradford is an accurate QB when given time, hopefully he can have his top 5 guys protecting him long enough this season. It'll be fun to guess which player ends up on the IR first. If the IR doesn't attack this team like it seems to do, the Cardinals could be respectable.
1. L.A. Rams *
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. S.F. 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals
AFC East:
I think we are all just a little bit shocked that the New England Patriots didn't end up last season as the super bowl champions. It was set up for a good run; Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and Devin McCourty just know what to do in crunch time. Nick Foles, is well, Nick Foles. And it didn't go according to script. What was interesting to me is that it almost felt like the Patriots window was closing shut. Cooks and Danny Amendola were let go, and replaced with Jordan Matthews and Cordarrelle Patterson. Nate Solder took the money and ran. Malcolm Butler pissed off the boss and got the boot (what happened, seriously?) I'm not sure they were replaced adequately, but we know that Bill can pull some magic, and the Patriots will be 13-3 again and planning for another Super Bowl. You know who won't be planning for a Super Bowl? The Miami Dolphins. They might be my pick to end up picking 1st in the 2019 NFL draft. And I love what they did in their draft this season. When we look back down the road, Minkah Fitzpatrick might be to this draft what Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu were to theirs. He fell a lot further than I thought he would, and the Dolphins will be the biggest beneficiary of that. I just really don't like this offense. I've never liked Ryan Tannehill; I think he's a strong arm, and good size, and that's about the gist of it. I don't remember Kenyan Drake running the ball at Alabama, but rumor has it that he did. Nothing else on this team gets me excited, and I'm guessing nothing will until they draft Nick Bosa in about 8 months. The Buffalo Bills will be their biggest challengers. I understand that the NFL salary cap makes it hard to maintain success in this league, but when success is one playoff appearance in the 21st century (8 months ago, no less), it's really hard to keep screwing things up. Yet, they somehow do. I know that Tyrod Taylor wasn't a franchise guy, but he still gave them a chance to win football games. Now a great defense is paired with a rookie QB that only completed 56% of his passes at Wyoming. Josh Allen (his arm) does look the part though, and I think if they remain patient, he will be much better than Tannehill, make of that what you will. I don't believe their offensive weapons scare many defenses, but Shady does keep on trucking. He did hit that magic number (30) though. The defense is great, and made greater by the signing of Star Lotulelei. I think he can light up offensive lines similiar to the way Suh did. Tremaine Edmunds could challenge for defensive ROY and their secondary is one of the league's best. But the schedule is tough (Josh Allen sees Baltimore, Joey Bosa and the Vikings in the first 3 weeks), and if they start 0-3, it might come crumbling down. Now, the New York Jets. I'm not sure any other franchise has gotten the media pub, that this team has seen over the last 7 months. I turn on ESPN, they're talking about the Jets. NFL Network? Sam Darnold. Boomer on CBS Sports... Darnold and the Jets. So let's talk about them. I don't believe that Darnold is Peyton Manning. A lot of comparisons make me think that the talking heads believe it could happen, but he's of a different element. I think he's more like Jim Kelly. Once the thing clicks, and he's surrounded by top talent, then can we see his true talents shine through. But no one is mistaken Isaiah Crowell for Thurman Thomas, Robby Anderson for Andre Reed or Terrelle Pryor for James Lofton. It's going to be a while. He is blessed with quite the defense on the other side, and Leonard Williams could be the best lineman in the league by week 17 (maybe after JJ if he plays). I love the secondary, and I'm mad that the Packers had no shot at Jamal Adams, who might be the best safety of this generation. He's like Earl Thomas and Harry the Hitman rolled into one. Look out!
1. New England Patriots *
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Miami Dolphins
AFC South:
The Houston Texans have a very exciting collection of talent that if they stay on the field, could be challenging for championships in years to come. DeShaun Watson is at the head of all this. I understand that fantasy football heads drool over this guy's numbers, but if you just step back and watch, you are also seeing a guy that just gets it. He extends plays, spreads the ball around, but plays safe enough where you don't see many turnovers. If the injury is past him, he could be up there with Wentz in the next generation. He'll get a big test early though; his first four road games are the Patriots, and every division rival. If they want to contend this year, he probably has to win at least 2. The defense is rock solid, and will be helped by the arrival of Tyrann Mathieu. I have no idea why the Cardinals didn't at least try to bring him back for a similar price; his arrival almost completes the Texans defense. If Aaron Colvin and Kareem Jackson can become the 2nd best CB pair in the division, they have a shot to do some damage come January. The best pair of CB's in the south come from the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think that anyone that watched Florida State a few years ago could tell you that Jalen Ramsey was destined for this type of greatness. What we didn't know was that AJ Bouye would be a top 10 CB as well, and it makes for a nasty challenge for some of the NFL's elite QB's. Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell form one of the NFL's top pass rushes as well, and it's going to be difficult to put up points against this defense. Garoppolo and Roethlisberger were really the only two that moved the ball efficiently against this team last year. For a Super bowl shot, it will likely come down to the arm and decision making of one Blake Bortles. I don't believe in him, but it seems like the Jaguars do. That might be good enough, but with Andrew Luck back to full strength, he might be the 4th best in his division. Andrew Norwell should help. The offensive line could be one of the strengths. The sneakiest team in the NFL just might be the Indianapolis Colts. Luck was an all-pro before all the injury plagued seasons. Rumor is, he's ready to go. If he is, he will be protected by who I think was the most complete player in the 2018 draft, Quentin Nelson. He was almost perfect at Notre Dame, and like a Steve Hutchinson, should be ready to go for the next 10-12 seasons. I also like the hiring of Frank Reich. He did an admirable job in Philadelphia last year, and there are plenty of weapons on this offense to compete for a playoff place. What it probably comes down to is whether or not the young defense can keep up. The secondary is the youngest in the NFL; they will need to step up immediately to give this defense a chance. Jabaal Sheard might just be the most recognizable name on this defense. My point exactly. On the other side of the river, the Tennessee Titans probably boast one of the NFL's best defenses. Their secondary really stands out, and adding Malcolm Butler to the mix could put them on a par with the Jaguars secondary. Kevin Byard is just shy of all-pro, and Adoree Jackson could be getting close to that level by the end of the year. Taylor Lewan might be the best blindside LT in the league, and he might have to do it again for the Titans to challenge. I love the character and personality of QB Marcus Mariota, but for whatever reason, it all hasn't come together. They struggle in the red zone, and field goals won't get them to the playoffs in this division. Firing Mike Mularkey was a strange move though, no matter how good they think Mike Vrabel might be.
1. Houston Texans *
2. Jacksonville Jaguars *
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Tennessee Titans
AFC North:
Could this finally be the year the Cleveland Browns come out of the cellar and actually win a couple of games? They brought in a successful GM in John Dorsey, they also added Paul DePodesta to help out with the analytics of the NFL. Todd Haley is now calling plays for the Browns and he'll have Jarvis Landry and Josh Gordon to design plays for. Tyrod Taylor won more games last season than the Browns have in the last 3. And Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb added with Duke Johnson should give the Browns a new dimension of running that they haven't had for some time. The defense looks solid; while the rest of the league laughed at the Browns for picking Denzel Ward ahead of Bradley Chubb, I feel like they have a shutdown corner on the same level of a Xavier Rhodes or Jalen Ramsey. If Myles Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah can put a rush together, the end of the barrel bottom should be near. Replacing them? The Cincinnati Bengals. I really want to like this team as I feel they've drafted pretty well recently, and locked up all the players that matter. Geno Atkins, AJ Green and Clint Boling should all retire as Bengals. But they just don't have the guys that want to win in this league so bad that it hurts. I'll start with Vontaze Burfict. He just wants to hit, regardless of the consequences and it puts the Bengals at a disadvantage every time he gets suspended. Andy Dalton doesn't appear to want to raise his level to the group of elite QB's. Once he got his new deal, he's looked average at best. Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard were drafted to be one of the top duo's in the NFL; both of them can be beaten, and now Dennard probably plays best in the nickel. It would be nice to see their character rise to the occasion and get Marvin Lewis a playoff victory, but I just don't see things happening for them once again. The Pittsburgh Steelers are so stubborn it hurts. Le'Veon isn't interested in coming back until he gets a long-term deal; the Steelers have moved onto the next RB. Their window in the NFL might be the smallest in the league though, Ben keeps talking about retirement, and they can't keep striking gold on drafting top notch WR in the league... or can they? James Washington might be the best WR in this draft class when it's all said and done. Antonio Brown and Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster might be the top pair in the league. They still play host to one of the best 3-4 defenses in the league. Stephon Tuitt might be the best 3-4 end in football, and Cameron Heyward is probably top 5. Morgan Burnett was a good signing; he should solidify their holes in the secondary. The Steelers look the part of a Super Bowl team, but knowing how small the window is, can they give their all-pro RB what he wants? Teams that wish they were in the Steelers shoes include the Baltimore Ravens. They probably thought that after Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl in 2012 that his career path would mirror that of Mr. Roethlisberger himself. Not so much, and they spent one of their two 1st round draft choices on QB Lamar Jackson. Which was kind of fun. But strange with some really good running backs and corner backs still on the board for a team that could've used one. I like Alex Collins though, and he could have a breakout campaign. He runs really hard; he's what I thought Darren McFadden was going to become. Terrell Suggs won't go away, and the safety duo is one of the best in the league with Eric Weddle and Tony Jefferson. It's a nice team, but not one that I can see pulling in the Lombardi trophy.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers * (Le'Veon in week 3)
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West:
Maybe the tightest division in football? I don't see a Super Bowl champion among any of the four, but I also don't think any of them will be drafting top 5 next season, barring a disaster of injuries. The Denver Broncos had my favorite signing of the off-season... not Case Keenum, but Marquette King. His boot at these altitudes should make him one of the best punters in football. Short fields for this offense could really make a difference, as the talent is there to do something special. After Adrian Peterson, Royce Freeman was my favorite running back coming out of high school in the YouTube area. He doesn't have the same exhilarating runs that AP has, but he is a tough back to bring down, and usually falls forward. The receivers are solid, and Keenum is a serviceable QB. The secondary might still be one of the league's best even with the loss of Talib, and the drafting of Bradley Chubb excited the fan base. They will have to be at their very best most weeks, because it looks like the Los Angeles Chargers have finally put together a team that can win this division again. It's amazing to think about, but Rivers has only been to the playoffs once in the last eight seasons. Sometimes he has a ton of talent around him, but can't stay upright, and then they bring in good protectors and he turns the ball over a ton. For the first time in awhile, the line looks to be great (Mike Pouncey was huge), and Rivers has some serious weapons in Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams. The defense is very underrated and could make the same improvements that the Vikings did in 2017. Casey Hayward is one of the best CB's in the league. Derwin James should step in immediately and dominate the same way Weddle did for them in years past. Denzel Perryman, Corey Liuget, and Brandon Mebane make the middle very difficult to run through, and Joey Bosa might be the NFL's best defensive player in 2018. It's setting up nicely, but there are tough games in this division, that will probably keep any team from standing out. Jon Gruden hopes to disagree, and make the Oakland Raiders the hottest team in the league in time for their move to Las Vegas. He put his stamp on the team, when he asked that the team trade Khalil Mack so they could continue evolving toward the type of team that Gruden wants. There's no denying that he is one of the most knowledgeable guys around, but sometimes that doesn't translate to wins. He changed the look of the receiving core completely, and it's hard to say if they got better. Martavis Bryant is suspended once again, and it sounds like the Raiders might cut him just a couple of months after they traded for him. Jordy Nelson hasn't looked the same since his ACL injury, but if he can find some of his explosiveness, he could give Derek Carr a layer of skill that he probably hasn't had in Oakland. Marshawn Lynch came back for another go, and looked great at the end of last season. The offense should be fun to watch, but with the trade of Mack, it might not even matter. The Kansas City Chiefs do have super bowl potential, especially on offense. The attacking talents of Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce and Chris Conley is exciting and should provide Pat Mahomes with plenty of options to go for big plays. The Offensive line is one of the best in the league. It's going to be the defense that determines whether or not the Chiefs can go to the super bowl this season. Getting Kendall Fuller in the Alex Smith deal was huge, especially with the loss of Peters. He and Steven Nelson will have to be great against this division of talented WR's. Justin Houston and Dee Ford can be great, but really haven't put all the talent together yet. Reggie Ragland is one of my favorite inside LB's in the league, he should be able to relieve them from any anxiety over losing Derrick Johnson. This team is close, but unless Mahomes makes Jared Goff type progression, they probably still need another year or two.
1. Kansas City Chiefs *
2. L.A. Chargers *
3. Denver Broncos
4. Oakland Raiders
Playoff Picture:
NFC:
3 L.A. Rams vs 6 Atlanta Falcons
Winner: Rams
4 Philadelphia Eagles vs 5 Green Bay Packers
Winner: Packers
1 New Orleans Saints vs 5 Green Bay Packers
Winner: Saints
2 Minnesota Vikings vs 3 L.A. Rams
Winner: Vikings
1 New Orleans Saints vs 2 Minnesota Vikings
Winner: Vikings (All the demons erased with this win)
AFC:
3 K.C. Chiefs vs 6 Jacksonville Jaguars
Winner: Jaguars
4 Houston Texans vs 5 L.A. Chargers
Winner: Chargers
1 New England Patriots vs 6 Jacksonville Jaguars
Winner: Patriots
2 Pittsburgh Steelers vs 5 L.A. Chargers
Winner: Steelers
1 New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Winner: Steelers
Super Bowl:
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings
This would be a great matchup if none of the most important pieces are missing from this game. I think Zimmer knows how to beat Pittsburgh, but Ben has been here before. In a case where Kirk Cousins hasn't, I just can't see the Vikings getting past what would be a very innovative game plan (zone blitzes and a ton of different looks). Ben goes out with a bang, and Mike Tomlin gets his name in the greatest coaches book.
Winner: Steelers
No comments:
Post a Comment