Wednesday, November 11, 2015

My QB Ratings 2015

*Criteria based on a 10x10 scale
Arm Strength & Accuracy
Pocket Presence
Support of the Franchise/Fan Base
Growth
Coach on the Field/Locker Room
Elusiveness/Awareness
Big Plays in Big Moments
For the Cameras
Bigger the Game, Better they Play
Reaction in Low Times

I've been doing this for 3 years now, and I still enjoy it. Maybe I’m getting conservative in my old age, or maybe I was just too liberal with numbers during the first 2 years of rating quarterbacks. In any case, Rodgers, Luck and Brady all tie at the top, and while I think they have been close to dominant over the past 16 games (2014 and 2015 ½ seasons is what I base this on), a lot of guys haven’t really stepped it up to the next level; although I think the new short passing offenses and YAC dependence has had a lot to do with it too. Offensive weapons have been asked to win games, while quarterbacks are asked not to lose them.  Enjoy the results, and feel free to comment back on your highlights/disappointments!


Jets – Ryan Fitzpatrick   58
Bills – Tyrod Taylor   47
Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill   54
Patriots – Tom Brady   90

Brady continues to get better and better, and I think if pushed, I would have separated him from Rodgers and Luck. He always plays big in the biggest moments, and his strength and accuracy is almost better than it was when he was younger. Doesn’t really play for the cameras, and hasn’t had too many low points to speak from, but he was a “gate” away from just about receiving a perfect score. Fitzpatrick ranked 20 points higher than Geno, and I think it’s noticed in their wins and losses over the last 16 games. The Jets have even opened up the offensive playbook, and Fitzpatrick even received a 5 for "Elusiveness" where as last year I gave him a 3. Tyrod Taylor is nothing more than a stop gap, and was very hard to rank in "Games" and "Fan Support". Tannehill really needs to justify that big contract he received. He stinks in the big moments, and even his growth category is running out.

Bengals – Andy Dalton   76^
Browns – Johnny Manziel/Josh McCown   45
Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger   80
Ravens – Joe Flacco   78

I know a few might be flabbergasted at the Andy Dalton rating, but he really is a product of what might be the most talented roster in football. Not to say he hasn’t done well, because he has, but I’ve noticed that he hasn’t been asked to win a lot of games, and his best individual performance was against the Seahawks. Still has lots of upside though, which is impressive considering he’s a 5 year veteran. Manziel and McCown both have many limitations and they pretty much equate to an average quarterback. Roethlisberger just hung on for this rating (another missed game would’ve added Vick to the equation), but he is almost a complete quarterback. Scored immensely well in “Support” and “Elusiveness”.  His pocket presence is also probably top 5, although his size helps extend plays as opposed to his brain. Flacco pretty much hit 7’s and 8’s across the board. Baltimore should be happy to have him.

Colts – Andrew Luck   90
Texans – Brian Hoyer   41
Titans – Marcus Mariota   49^
Jaguars – Blake Bortles   56^

Andrew Luck had a great 2014, and has had a so-so 2015. He still scores highly because he’s the best coach on the field in the NFL, and he’s the perfect media quarterback (accepts blame, deflects praise). Once the injuries subside, he should be back in the #1 position. Hoyer needs to be replaced tomorrow, I think he’s the worst starter currently in the league. Gives Houston minimal positives. We haven't been able to see much from Mariota, hence the relatively low rating. He did score really well in growth and accuracy (17), and I think as long as he has those two in his back pocket, he'll be a relevant quarterback in the next couple NFL seasons. Bortles has 80 potential; the Jaguars haven’t been good enough to get a true testament to how well he plays in the biggest moments and in any significant games. I gave him one of two “10 Growths” on the rating chart.

Broncos – Peyton Manning   82
Chiefs – Alex Smith   71
Chargers – Philip Rivers   80
Raiders – Derek Carr   68^

I can’t imagine that Peyton would’ve received anything less than an 82 in his career, but that’s a testament to how good he’s been. The last month of 2014, plus the first few weeks in 2015 showed the viewing public that he’s not as good as he used to be, but still ranks in the top 20% in NFL starting quarterbacks. Can’t imagine Denver would want anyone else. Alex Smith has improved steadily over the three seasons, and he’s a solid and dependable starter in the league. Lacks big game points, but has good accuracy and pocket presence. Philip Rivers was my biggest surprise. He shines in the big games, has really taken the Chargers franchise and made it his, and he does a decent job in front of the camera, sans Lambeau Field earlier this year. Could reach the top 5, if he did better in the big games (Broncos, especially). Derek Carr proved me wrong, as last year I gave him something in the mid 40’s and I didn’t think he’d ever reach 70. I’m guessing that’s the ground floor for him by next season.

Eagles – Sammy Bradford   59
Cowboys – Matt Cassel/Tony Romo/Brandon Weeden   70
Giants – Eli Manning   80
Redskins – Kirk Cousins   52

There’s a reason this division hasn’t won very many games in football. If Romo is healthy it’s a bit different, but without him, it’s the worst quarterbacked division and that includes the AFC South. Sam Bradford should always be a 75, but for whatever reason can’t put it all together. Fan bases in both St. Louis and Philadelphia have never really embraced him, although I understand why Cleveland was rumored to want him. He hit 7’s in the “Accuracy” and “Pocket Presence” categories, and with some big wins, could still get into the 70’s. Cassel and Weeden bring down Romo’s 86 to a 70. Not bad, but we can all see how much worse off the Cowboys are. Eli is about as solid as they come and I don’t think his number has fluctuated in the three year rankings. Kirk Cousins scored 4 less than RG3, but in his defense, his field numbers are better, the fan base just doesn’t much care for him.

Vikings – Teddy Bridgewater   60^
Packers – Aaron Rodgers   90
Bears – Jay Cutler   73
Lions – Matthew Stafford   75

Teddy improved off of last year’s ranking. He still has plenty of room for growth, but he has had a few turnovers in big moments over the past 12 months. I have been really impressed with his “Pocket Presence” (8), and he has the potential for 10 there. Aaron is still one of the best in the game and only lost a point off of last season. A little bit probably related to last year’s injury, but I think his reactions after low moments haven’t been as good as in the past. He has seemed frustrated at times. On his day though, still one of the best. Jay Cutler has made a lot out of a poor situation. Still one of the best arms in the league, and I gave him style points for never lashing out in all of the low moments. Wish he had a few more big moments to play off of, but I think the Bears will be rebuilding for a while. I’ll be curious to see if it’s with or without Cutler.  Matthew Stafford probably has the best skill set in the league, no one wants him out of Detroit, but something isn’t clicking. He got a 3 in “Coach-Field” and a 4 in “Growth” because I think he’s regressed a bit.

Falcons – Matt Ryan    80
Bucs – Jameis Winston   51^
Saints – Drew Brees   83
Panthers – Cam Newton   83^

Cam is almost on the elite level. He’s very elusive, understands his limitations, and has really overtaken that leader role with the Panthers. This could be the year that elevates him into that 85+ range. Matt Ryan came back from a low 70’s to reach the 80’s again. He’s had much better protection, but he isn’t turning the ball over on multiple occasions like he did the past few seasons. A playoff win would solidify top ten status. Jameis Winston has some nice tools and scored well in “Growth” and “Elusiveness”. I want to see him become a leader on the field, but he’s played well in tight games, and should be the Bucs franchise guy for years to come. Brees is still steady, but did drop 3 points from last year. New Orleans loves him though, and I can’t imagine he’ll be forced out anytime soon. And that accuracy... (10).

49ers – Colin Kaepernick   58
Seahawks – Russell Wilson   83
Cardinals – Carson Palmer   79
Rams – Nick Foles   57^

Kaepernick fell off the most out of any quarterback in the league (-16). I fully expected that once NFL defenses adjusted he’d struggle to still be one of the NFL’s best. Now everyone has taken away his running skill set, and Carlos Hyde isn’t as adept to the read option as Frank Gore was. Teams focus on Kaep, and he hasn’t shown any leadership or abilities to get back to the heights of 2013. Russell Wilson is right on the edge. He has huge limitations (namely his arm), but all the intangibles will make him relevant at least through his next contract. I really want to see the next 12-24 games of his career, as the Seahawks will continue to lose talent through free agency, and they won’t be able to count on Marshawn Lynch as in year’s past. A healthy Carson is a good option to have in today’s NFL, as he reads defenses well, and uses the whole field. The Cardinals have been competitive in just about every game that Carson has played in over the past year. While he can’t avoid the rush anymore, he’s great in front of the media, and the team isn't looking to replace him anytime soon. Nick Foles is an enigma. He’s smart, and has good NFL attributes (low risk, low reward), which works on a team like the Rams. For him to even get into the 60’s though, I want to see him win a few games that have playoff implications and be the factor of some big divisional wins over the next few weeks. He never really did that with the Eagles.

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