Thursday, November 28, 2013

NFL Thoughts


Nate’s 9: Thoughts on the NFL Season

#9. Hard to say that I saw this season coming from the Arizona Cardinals.  I actually really liked their team heading into the season, as they hit on all of my points for winning in the National Football League, but I was certain that injuries, or the NFC West, or just some sort of dysfunctional occurrence that usually happens to the Arizona franchise would keep them from winning 8 games this season.  It still looks like the road to the playoffs will be very difficult, but I also thought that before they beat the Indianapolis Colts in a landslide yesterday.

#8. Every quarterback tends to have some glimpses of capability, but it doesn’t mean they should be a starter in the NFL.  My point I’m trying to make here is I watched a lot of West Virginia college football over the last few years, because their offense is very entertaining.  Most football fans should know that entertaining does not equal good.  I really didn’t like Geno Smith as an NFL quarterback, and I believe he is what is holding back the Jets from possibly locking up that 6th seed.  They have built a very nice squad from 1 to 53.  My only concerns with this franchise stem from the quarterback position, and now they have gotten it wrong twice.  I think Rex Ryan at least appears in one super bowl if he just spent as much time developing the right guy for his offense as he does with his pre-game speeches and his extracurriculars.  It’s a shame that no quarterbacks in next year’s draft are the answer.

#7. Entropy is one of the worst things that can happen to a coach in the NFL.  The minute you get stagnant and unmotivated to achieve greatness, is the minute you need to search for a fresh start.  Case in point, Mr. Andy Reid.  One could argue that the Philadelphia Eagles have more talent on their roster than the Kansas City Chiefs, but yet he has had a ridiculous amount of success this year in Kansas City.  I attribute all of that to motivation.  He didn’t care if he won or lost in Philly anymore, because his job was pretty much safe, and even when he was on the hot seat, you felt like he could leave Philly on his own terms.  Now, he has something to work toward, especially because it’s a new relationship in Kansas City, which with a 3-13 season could be over in an instant.  I think this is always why Bill Parcells moved on after a certain number of seasons.  That’s why I’ve been so impressed with the Jeff Fisher’s, Bill Belicheck’s and Sean Payton’s of the world.  They stay motivated, even when sometimes their success says they don’t have to.

#6. I’m scared if the Falcons end up with the number 1 pick in next year’s draft.  My rule about following the NFL has always been this:  there are no rules.  A QB shouldn’t always have to go #1 in an NFL draft.  More often than not, a team should take the best player available.  Imagine if the Raiders had taken Calvin Johnson instead of JaMarcus Russell.  So although there are a number of good QB prospects in next year’s draft, I think the best player far and away is Jadeveon Clowney.  The Falcons have had a tough time this season due to a number of things: injuries, lack of a pass rush, teams winning in Atlanta, but obviously a fully loaded and talented Atlanta roster is hard to beat.   Imagine next year when they jump to early leads and then they have Clowney and Umenyiora coming after you.  Right back where they belong. 

#5. I believe that only injuries will keep Denver from winning the super bowl this season.  We all saw how good they can be; jumping to a 24-0 lead in New England against a very underrated and strong Patriots team.  We also saw what happened the minute DRC got injured.  Without Bailey and Cromartie I have to admit their defense looks quite penetrable. Tom Brady figured it out in time; get the ball out early and often.  They had a tough time matching up with Thompkins, Amendola and Gronk after Cromartie left the game.  But they never went for the big play because it meant Denver’s offense would be back on the field.  New England played the perfect half, but I’m curious to see if they can do it against a full-strength Broncos team.

#4. It pays to be mediocre.  The year Seattle won the NFC west with a 7-9 record, was the year the NFL dynamics changed.  Now it’s the best division in football and I don’t think it’s that close.  Part of the reason is all four teams hit on their coaches.  Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh, Jeff Fisher and Bruce Arians.  They are all probably in the top 25% of their trade, and they have all drafted very well since that season.  Earl Thomas, Michael Floyd, Aldon Smith, Chris Long, and many others are on the fast track to stardom.  The NFL is very cyclical, and maybe next it will be the NFC East’s turn to take advantage of the higher draft positions over these next few seasons.

#3. Maybe it’s a sign of the times, but I have a hard time understanding why people don’t place Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees in the conversation for greatest quarterbacks of all-time.  I know the NFL has become a passing league, and with the tough calls on the defense it’s easier to pad statistics, but it’s because of these guys that GM’s everywhere believe that a good quarterback is necessary to win in today’s NFL.  This is the same NFL in which the likes of Doug Williams, Mark Rypien and Phil Simms won Super Bowls’ over John Elway and Jim Kelly.  Clearly it can be done.  But the fact that these teams led by Manning, Brady and Brees makes the playoffs year after year is a testament to their greatness, and why the league is what it is now.  Let’s mention them with Johnny, Dan and Joe.

#2. The Miami Dolphins are the perfect average team.  My theory about the 49% really gets tested to the limits when analyzing the Dolphins. (I believe that winning teams stem from having players at every position better than average.  So if Philip Rivers is the 16th best QB in a 32 team league, the Chargers are in the top half, Matt Forte – Bears, Bengals WR, etc).  The Dolphins literally hover at the 49% at almost every position.  It’s obviously what the NFL wants; the true parity that they look for with the salary cap and draft, etc. and I’m impressed that the Dolphins literally are that version.  Tannehill (19th), RB (19), WR (17), TE (15), OL (14, but might go down minus the bully), DL (13), LB (14), DB (19) ST (14).  Crazy, right!?  8-8 team in my mind.

#1. What are the Carolina Panthers?  I’ve noticed that most publications are labeling them a top 5 team in the league, which is amusing, but they have won some massive games.  They have gotten a bit lucky in the fact that both San Francisco and New England may have been looking ahead to their next week’s opponents (at New Orleans; at New England), and have still flown a bit under the radar.  Or are they a really tough out in the NFL because they all so well balanced on offense, and their defense has been very effective?  I don’t know, but if you can tell me your thoughts on the Panthers, I’d love to hear them. 

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