We've made it. This is my favorite round of pretty much any competition in any sport. It's the 16 best teams in the world - usually. And if it isn't, well, everyone is still in with a shout for the next 3 months while also having to compete in a domestic competition. Imagine if the NFL went through a home/away March Madness style season, while also dealing with trying to do as best as they can in the regular season. That's pretty much what we have with Champions League knockout rounds.
This year is going to be so different from any other stage that I honestly have no idea what to expect. Because of COVID, some teams might not have any home games at all, and it looks as if most of Europe is still playing under the empty stadiums rule. Home field is out the window, but while last season was crazy in the way that each round only resulted in one match, this time both teams will have a "Home game", but even through this first round, nobody has any idea where the games will be played and what teams get to play at home vs travelling to a neutral site within a country that has less restrictive regulations for COVID-19. So I was contemplating on whether I should make predictions or not; I don't think I will because anything can happen and it's as much a guessing game as ever. I'll just present opinions on teams, and whether I think they have what it takes to win this very unusual tournament experience. (Ok, boys want to do predictions haha)
Note* In my beginning of the year preview, I believe I had Bayern playing Juventus in the final. While I still think Bayern has a good shot at getting there, Juventus has been rather disappointing this year and it would really be a surprise if they were to do it. Can't say who I see in their place though.
1. RB Leipzig vs Liverpool
I'm obsessed with this matchup. It's heavy metal football (Liverpool) vs the true counter attacking methods of sitting deep, winning the ball, running and crossing (RB Leipzig). Leipzig have played quite well so far this year, and knocked out Manchester United in a must win game. They're still putting pressure on Bayern Munich to win the Bundesliga, but the deeper they get in this tournament, the less likely of a chance I think they have in Germany. Liverpool is struggling ever since the passing, er injury of Virgil Van Dijk. Liverpool is having a hard time generating goals, and are making so many mistakes at the back. Yet, they still have Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino in attack, and that means the goals can start pouring in at any time. So, essentially what should happen is if Liverpool press from kickoff and put Leipzig under serious pressure, they're probably going to get through this leg quite easily. When RBL has to come out and chase the game is when they get into a bit of trouble. Here's the kicker. If Liverpool don't put away many of the opportunities that they're bound to get from the great attacking positions they generate, Leipzig is going to have so many 3v2's and 4v3's. And they are going to get them against a GK Alisson Becker who is on probably the worst from of his career. RBL usually plays a 5-3-2, but with wingbacks that are as high - or higher - than their attacking midfielders. If they can force Trent Alexander Arnold or Andrew Robertson into some turnovers high up the pitch, look out.
RB Leipzig likely formation - 5-3-2 Counter-Attack
Liverpool likely formatin - 4-3-3 Gegenpress
RB Leipzig player to watch: CB Dayot Upamecano. I'm intrigued to see how he performs after signing that big deal with FC Bayern. He's a top level defender when on form, his matchup vs Mo Salah will be amazing.
Liverpool player to watch: CF Roberto Firmino. He's had a very interesting season, after years of being dominant from their pressing forward position. Some of his turnovers have led to opposing goals, and momentous swings of confidence within the team. If he can press well against the Leipzig back 3 and win some balls in good areas, Liverpool can salvage their season with a deep run in Europe.
Predictions: Dad - RBL; Aiden (10) - Liverpool; Logan (8) - RBL; Lucas (8) - RBL
2. PSG vs Barcelona
Mouth watering. Or it would've been, if Neymar didn't get hurt and will now likely miss this matchup. While it's not really that devastating for PSG because they have a plethora of options in attack, it does take the temperature down a bit for this battle of his current club vs his former one. In their last game, Moise Kean played in the attacking role, and he was able to put the ball in the back of the net, so there shouldn't be too many worries there. I think PSG will go with their normal 4-2-3-1 with Kylian Mbappe, Kean and Julian Draxler sitting just behind Mauro Icardi. PSG usually starts on the front foot, and I'm curious to see which midfield twosome will sit behind these attackers. The game will probably be won or lost with those selections. Barcelona is just now starting to fire on all cylinders after sputtering to get through the first couple months. The only reason they're even playing PSG is because they let Juventus get the best of them on the final matchday. They do have a bit of an injury crisis, but Messi will be around for this, playing in his new CF role. He's been good as of late, both goals against Alaves were beauties. Barcelona will likely play through the middle and try and provide Messi with as many key chances to score as he requires. My only concern for Barca is whether Frenkie De Jong goes back into midfield, or whether he will be forced to play in defense for another game.
PSG likely formation - 4-2-3-1 direct style, that really looks like a 4-2-1-3.
Barcelona likely formation - 4-3-3 possession based
PSG player to watch: CF Kylian Mbappe. Whether your new to the sport because you love reading this silly little blog I like to send out periodically, or watch soccer religiously, I think it's safe to say that Mbappe just draws the eyeballs to the TV screen the same way we are drawn to Mona Lisa's delightful smile, or Van Gogh's Starry Night. When he's on form, he rates as one of the best players in the world, and when he gets behind the defenders, it generally always ends up in his favor.
Barcelona player to watch: CF Leo Messi. In what still might be his final season with Barcelona - or just one of another 4-5, Messi has changed the way we view the game, and his goals and skills have been breath-taking and awe-inspiring. He will go down as one of the best players we have ever seen, and he's done it so many different ways. He's been an astute dribbler. He's been a wide playmaker. A goal-scoring winger. A false 9 drawing out defenders to provide for Luis Suarez and David Villa. And now he leads the Barcelona attacking line himself. Enjoy him while you still can - he's the Tom Brady of the global game.
Predictions: Dad - Barcelona; Aiden - PSG; Logan - Barcelona; Lucas - Barcelona.
3. Sevilla vs Dortmund
Six weeks ago, everyone was excited for this matchup between two of Europe's most over achieving sides. Dortmund won a rather simple group in the early stages, and Sevilla battered Krasnador and Rennes, but couldn't get a goal past Chelsea. Now, haha well, it's gone two very different ways for these 2 sides. Dortmund struggled through the holidays, fired their manager and are praying for points every time they hit the field. Losing Axel Witsel was disasterous for them, and since he's been gone they've only won 2 matches, including a cup game against 2nd division FC Paderborn. Sevilla meanwhile have lost once since early December and have a very commanding 2-0 lead against Barcelona in the Spanish cup. It should be easy. Sevilla likes to run the game from midfield and with Ivan Rakitic and Oliver playing well, have the resources to do so. Dortmund is still seeking a new identity without Witsel; while they've kept their very familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, they can't find the right combination of midfield to keep opponents out of their own goal, while feeding Marco Reus and Erling Haaland themselves.
Sevilla likely formation - 4-3-3 Narrow and Compact
Dortmund likely formation - 4-2-3-1 High-Line possessive based
Sevilla player to watch: CM Ivan Rakitic. Had a great run at Barcelona, but just seems to really thrive during his times at Sevilla. As a former FC Schalke man, might he take delight in knocking out their biggest German rival?
Dortmund player to watch: ST Erling Haaland. When he's scoring goals, Dortmund is hard to keep up with, but he doesn't offer much else when things aren't going well. He's been pushed back into the lineup maybe before his injury allowed, and now we're seeing the frustrations for doing so. A comprehensive victory over Sevilla could fix things for Haaland and Co.
Predictions: Dad - Sevilla; Aiden - Dortmund; Logan - Dortmund; Lucas - Dortmund.
4. FC Porto vs Juventus
Another intriguing matchup. Reading up on the history of these two sides, FC Porto has never beaten Juventus in Champions League play (0-1-4). It would have been hard to do so, the only time that Porto have been flying high in the recent era is when Jose Mourinho was leading the show back in 2004. And for reasons still unknown, Juventus was bounced out of Europe by Deportivo La Coruna that year (although 2004 is the year in soccer that I will never, ever, ever understand as FC Porto beat Monaco in the Champions League final, and Greece won the European Championship). This year Porto has been good, but not great, and in their matchups against Manchester City, sat back and absorbed tons of pressure, which makes me think that the same will happen against Juventus. (My oldest son loves FC Porto, so we get to see a lot of them). They usually play some variation of 4-4-2, but against City we saw a 5-4-1 with wingbacks at the Etihad, and 5-3-2 with a more direct style at home. Juventus have been a little off the pace this year with 6 draws and 3 losses in the Serie A, and the lone loss against Barcelona in Europe. They have been very versatile in attack, and have been getting goals from a number of players this year. It's dried up a little recently, but I still think Juventus can score a few goals during these two matches.
FC Porto likely formation - Could go a lot of ways, I see a 5-3-2 counter attack against Juve.
Juventus likely formation - 4-4-2 possession based w a free role for CR7
FC Porto player to watch: ST Moussa Marega. Could probably be playing for a top club by now, and he's been one of the two prolific players for FC Porto this campaign. I think he really likes it there though, and has come through some adversity over the years to be one of Porto's most indispensable players. If he can get a goal or two in the first match, this tie could come down to the final minutes.
Juventus player to watch: CF Cristiano Ronaldo. I picked the other two giants (Mbappe, Messi) may as well pick the 3rd. He can change a tie on a dime, and he's done it to Porto before (see goal against them in 2009). He only needs a moment to make the full 180 storyline about him. In what might be his last real run in a side that can win Champions League, he should have some extra motivation. Enjoy him while you can, too.
Predictions: Dad - Juventus; Aiden - FC Porto; Logan - Juventus; Lucas - FC Porto
5. Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea
The second week of matchups start with these two. It's probably the only one of the four that should be close. Chelsea looks rejuvenated under their new manager Thomas Tuchel, and they've won 5 in a row. Some might say that they haven't played anybody, but it seems to me that Manchester United lost to Sheffield United at home, while Liverpool has lost 3 in a row at home. You just have to beat who's in front of you. Which is what Atletico Madrid have been doing all season. They're not very enjoyable to watch; they play a very rigid 4-4-2, aren't afraid to set up deep in their own half, and just expect Luis Suarez or Joao Felix to score a goal. It's worked for them all season. This may setup a little differently then - Edouard Mendy has been one of the best keepers in Europe this season, so Atletico may be forced to play a little more. I see something similar to their series against Liverpool last campaign. They'll play it tight at home, and push the envelope a little bit more at Stamford Bridge.
Atletico Madrid likely formation - 4-4-2 contain, until late in the tie.
Chelsea likely formation - I think Tuchel will go with 3-4-3 wing play, but he's full of surprises.
Atletico Madrid player to watch: GK Jan Oblak. The world's best goal keeper in my opinion. I'm always surprised when he concedes, and he is so commanding of the 18. He is good enough to certainly win a matchup on his own, and with Abraham looking to miss time during these fixtures, Chelsea might really struggle to score.
Chelsea player to watch: RM Callum Hudson-Odoi. Once upon a time, I thought he was going to be the wonderkid of the early 20's. Flying down the left wing, quicker than the full backs, whipped in a good cross, a better Sterling. Clearly, he's let me down. But maybe it was Frank. Under Tuchel, he has seen a bit of a resurgence, and might be one of the few players that's locked down a spot in this new formation.
Predictions: Dad - Atleti; Aiden - Atleti; Logan - Atleti; Lucas - Atleti
6. Lazio vs Bayern
I wish I could say Lazio has a shot here. When fully fit, they have a lineup that could do some damage. They destroyed Borussia Dortmund in the capital. Ciro Immobile is one of the best strikers playing right now in Europe. Their 3-5-2 formation is really difficult to go up against. But for some reason, I keep going back to - It's Bayern freaking Munich. Bayern really shouldn't have any problems here. They can play most styles of football, and have the personnel to accommodate the wishes of the manager. If they let Lazio play, they'll have Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman charging down the wings. If Lazio sit deep, Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich put pressure on the midfield and usually create opportunities for themselves or for Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller. If Lazio comes out to try and clog the midfield, Bayern shifts the ball to Alphonse Davies and Benjamin Pavard on the wings. Really no suitable options for Lazio here.
Lazio likely formation - 3-5-2, but with fluidity. Look for Sergej Milinkovic-Savic in a free role.
Bayern likely formation - 4-2-3-1 High defensive line.
Lazio player to watch: CM Sergej Milinkovic-Savic. One of my favorite midfielders in the world. He can do it all really, and I honestly thought he was going to be the player that settled into the Manchester United midfield instead of Bruno Fernandes. It's okay to be wrong once in awhile though. SMS is a good enough player to pick a pass, run down a winger, and put one past the keeper though. If he goes off, this leg might get a little more interesting.
Bayern player to watch: All of them. Haha, but this team really intrigues me. When firing, they can't be beat. I'll pick CDM Joshua Kimmich, only because his movement around the pitch is unmatched, and he's the best in the world at what he does. Watch him in the final 3rd.
Predictions: Dad - Bayern; Aiden - Bayern; Logan - Bayern; Lucas - Bayern
7. Atalanta vs Real Madrid
Another David vs Goliath. But in this one, Goliath is on his knees a little bit. Real had a tough group stage experience; they didn't qualify for this round until the final day, and they lost twice to Shakhtar Donetsk. They have also been inconsistent in the La Liga, sitting five points behind Atletico while playing two more games. Atalanta is right in the mix for a Champions League place in Italy, but will they maybe sacrifice going hard in the league for a chance to knock off these giants? They set up in my favorite formation - the 3-6-1, (triangles everywhere!) which allows for fluidity in midfield and goals can be generated from anyone on any side of the field. Their back 3 isn't very solid though, and Real might break through their defending lines. Zidane has Madrid playing well lately in their forever present 4-3-3, and they're getting goals from Karim Benzema which is a must if they're going to absorb the pressure that Atalanta will force upon them. I see the Madrid midfield lining up a little deeper than normal, maybe encouraging Atalanta to play with the ball a bit, and encourage less bodies in the box so Benzema can have more opportunities to penetrate.
Atalanta likely formation - 3-6-1 balanced. They play well with and without the ball.
Real Madrid likely formation - 4-3-3, direct possession. Zidane's staple.
Atalanta player to watch: LWM Robin Gosens. I used to cringe when the German National team put him on the left side of midfield, but over the last 18 months, he's probably become one of Germany's best players. Most likely to mark Marco Asensio, he's got a huge task ahead of him. But it might be the matchup that spurs Atalanta on to bigger things.
Real Madrid player to watch: LM Eden Hazard. Does he cross his legs while sitting on the bench? Which body part is going to bother him next? Is he capable of a cameo appearance before the end of the season? It's shocking to me how he has fallen off since his big move to Real Madrid from Chelsea, and I'm not sure Zidane would trust him even if he was fully fit to play in these matches. Zidane says he could be back in time, and I think if he gets minutes, every single one of them will be scrutinized to the 9th degree.
Predictions: Dad (I wavered here) - Madrid; Aiden - Madrid; Logan - Madrid; Lucas - Madrid.
8. Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Manchester City
BMG has been exciting to watch this season, while not necessarily getting the results that they crave. They currently sit 7th in Germany, and really struggled to get to this point in Europe. Their coach just announced that he will be leaving them at the end of the season, which is a huge blow. Last season, they were running the Bundesliga for awhile, and their exciting counter-attacking style of play, is difficult to deal with as an opponent, but fun to watch as a fan. Now they lose the comforts of their home field and will play Manchester City in Budapest, Hungary. Man City is on absolute fire. They're cruising through the Premier League, cruised through the Champions League group stage, and could win both domestic cups this year. They've done this without having two of their best players (Sergio Aguero/ Kevin De Bruyne) for parts of the season, and a makeshift defensive line, although now that seems to be fixed since the arrival of Ruben Dias, and the resurgence of John Stones. I like this for BMG only because they don't need the ball to be successful, and against Man City, will probably only have it for 30% of the time.
BMG likely formation - 4-2-3-1, although quickly changes into a counter 4-3-3.
Man City likely formation - Tiki-Taka 4-3-3. Movement is fluid, also looks like a 4-5-1 with a 9 that can drop deep.
BMG player to watch: With all the injuries, I'll pick CAM Lars Stindl. He's been steady for years, might be the face of the club, and is going to have to hit some passes to really make the City backline work, otherwise their stay in Europe is going to be rather short.
Man City player to watch: Ilkay Gundogan. What he has done since De Bruyne went out injured is nothing short of amazing. He is scoring goals, getting into really good attacking positions, helping out on the defensive side, and not turning over the ball in tight situations. He might be one of the best players around in the last 3 months. He should make easy work of Gladbach here.
Predictions: Dad - City; Aiden - City; Logan - City; Lucas - City.
Who wins it all? Dad - Bayern; Aiden - Real Madrid; Logan - Juventus; Lucas - City.
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