Round of 16
This is my favorite round of competition in any sport around the world. It is usually sixteen of the best European soccer teams in the world competing for a trophy while also competing across multiple fronts (i.e. domestic leagues, cup competitions). It's great because teams that have ambitions to win their own national competitions have to decide whether or not to rest players, rotate the squad, or risk injury or fatigue among the players that continue to play 2-3 games a week. A good manager is capable of getting through these gauntlet of games with a trophy or two, a bad manager tends to forgo on a competition completely (i.e. Leicester when they got to the Champions League QF's, but finished in the bottom half of the English Premier League). This is my analysis and prediction for what's going to happen over the next 4 weeks.
2/13 Juventus v Tottenham. We open with probably the most even fixture of the 8 matchups in the first knockout round. Juventus is one of the best form teams in Europe at the current time and nobody has scored a goal against them in 2018. Tottenham have one of the best goal scores in the world in Harry Kane who seems to score a goal in every match. So something needs to break here. I look for Tottenham to take advantage of a couple of injuries from the Juventus side including Paulo Dybala, who I consider to be their best player, and try and nick an away goal in Italy and then try and beat them outright at Wembley. Harry Kane continues his dominance toward global stardom and snatches both goals in a tight contest.
Prediction: Tottenham 2, Juventus 1. (1-1, 1-0)
Key Player: Christian Eriksen. My early 2019 prediction, but I think he is auditioning for his new club. Reminds me so much of Alessandro Del Piero.
2/13 FC Basel v Manchester City. The other match this day is probably the biggest mismatch in the round of 16, but Basel has performed really well this season in their domestic league. One of the unfortunate unseen circumstances though is that they sold their best defender, Manuel Akanji to Borussia Dortmund in the winter transfer window, which probably means they will be a bit short when asked to play against City. City is on top form right now, still with only one loss in the league, and able to win 4 trophies if they continue to play their dominating style of football. The only thing that might hold them back in this tie is the fact they are missing a few of their key players. Leroy Sane is probably still out for a month at least; Gabriel Jesus won't be back for a few weeks either. I don't see it as too much of a problem as long as Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero are fit; this season is probably the best I've seen them both play.
Prediction: Manchester City 4, Basel 0. (0-2, 2-0)
Key Player: Kevin De Bruyne - A midfielder usually isn't considered the world's best player; he is really, really close to that recognition.
2/14 FC Porto v Liverpool. I can't figure Liverpool out. At times, I think they should be closer to City and competing for a Premier league title, and other times they lose to Swansea. They made it out of a tricky group, generated some truly inspiring performances, and scored 23 goals in their 6 matches, while only conceding 6. They won all their games, you ask? No, they won 3 and drew the other 3. So in the 3 wins, they were +17. That is the potential that Liverpool carries. I think this matchup is a little trickier than that though. Besides going out to Sporting Lisbon on penalties in the Portuguese League cup, FC Porto haven't lost a match since October. Granted, the competition isn't as fierce, but they have put up some impressive results against Monaco, Leipzig, Benfica and Sporting. Vincent Aboubakar and Yacine Brahimi are two new talents who will be playing for big clubs in the near future. They can attack Liverpool's defense with aplomb, and this could very well be the most exciting tie of the 8, so far as goals are concerned.
Prediction: Liverpool 5, FC Porto 4. (2-2, 3-2)
Key Player: Virgil Van Dijk - This is what he was brought in to do.
2/14 Real Madrid v PSG. If soccer could generate orgasms... this is the one. On one side you have Madrid, winner of 3 of the last 4 European Cups (which is insane in the Leo Messi era, and really underrated in historical sporting achievements), and on the other side you have a club with a bottomless pit of cash that has probably made the biggest advances of any side in Europe over the last 10 years. (If you want to argue this, would Neymar have left Barcelona for Manchester City? Nah.) They expect the Champions League trophy, and what better way to chase it then to go through the club that is associated with the trophy, both past and present. Real's form this season has been a bit of a disappointment, and they are still trying to figure out their best formation with the players that they have. I like their 4-4-2 with Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale up top, but they are a better side when those two can attack from the wings. 4 midfielders has been a struggle for them, and I think they want to know how they can get Isco, Luka Modric, and Toni Kroos all into the same team. Not a good time to do it, as PSG has been flying. Neymar has been spectacular and could win the Balon D'or away from Leo Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo for the first time since 2008. Edinson Cavani and Kylian Mbappe have supported him well, and their midfield 3 are probably Europe's best. Losing this leg takes all the luster off of both clubs' seasons and I can't wait to see how it unfolds.
Prediction: PSG 3, Real Madrid 1. (1-1, 2-0)
Key Player: Kylian Mbappe. From the first time I saw him play, the guy I thought who really would take the throne away from the Messi-Ronaldo tug of war. If he destroys Marcelo, this tie is over.
2/20 Bayern Munich v Besiktas. I thought this would be a lot closer 2 months ago. Bayern was still transitioning back to their new (old) manager, Jupp Heynckes, while Besiktas was romping through their group and playing pretty well in the Turkish domestic league. Now? Bayern is 21-1-0 since moving Carlo Ancelotti on! That is unbelievable! And they are just destroying teams. They went from a team that I thought might struggle to make it to the next round of this tournament, to probably my favorite to win the thing. They are doing all of this without Manuel Neuer who is considered by some to be the best GK in the world. They feel like they can beat anyone, and that's a scary Bayern to play. Worse for everyone else? Bayern has almost a 20 point league domestically, so all their efforts can now be focused to Europe. Besiktas has responded to winning their group by selling their best player to Everton. Yikes.
Prediction: Bayern 4, Besiktas 1. (4-0, 1-0)
Key Player: I guess Sven Ulreich. I still don't think he is an elite GK, so if he lets in an early goal at home, it could have repercussions on the entire tie. Bayern should be too strong though, to even put him in that position.
2/20 Chelsea v Barcelona. This is David v Goliath remade if David was a little dribbling wizard that isn't afraid to take on any defender or any situation at any time. Eden Hazard is the engine that makes Chelsea go. The season he didn't have any goals until the halfway point? Chelsea finished 30 points off of the pace for the Premier League title. Last season? Hazard was their best player and they lifted the trophy. This season has been a little bit of both. The good news is that Barcelona's weakness is probably the center of the park defensively, which is the place that Hazard loves to attack the most. The problem is he might be asked to do too much, because I think Conte runs out his best defenders for both legs, and doesn't give Hazard the support that he needs. To beat Barcelona, they have to have their counter-attacking style spot on. Against the team that nobody wants to face, with a full selection of players to choose from (Minus Phillipe Coutinho who already played for Liverpool), they are going to have to be. I think it's close, but Chelsea might have to focus on other dreams this season.
Prediction: Barcelona 3, Chelsea 2. (2-1, 2-0)
Key Player: Ousmane Dembele. His form has been strange all season, and he has dealt with injuries and pressure and all the things that young players don't think about when they make big moves. At Dortmund, there was little pressure because Marco Reus, P-E Aubameyang, and Mario Gotze took that off of him. I think being favored in a European matchup with a home game in the 2nd match takes the pressure off a bit, and maybe he gets 90 minutes to show what he can do.
2/21 Sevilla v Manchester United. Both teams are huge question marks right now. United had a relatively easy time getting through the group, but still didn't have progress clinched until the final match day. Sevilla got help thanks to Liverpool crushing Spartak 7-0 in the penultimate match, but even they could be playing in the Europa League right now. They are also a -5 in goal differential in the La Liga, and are in serious danger of missing Champions League play next season. They are usually difficult to beat at home, but they've drawn Levante and gotten beaten badly by Real Betis at home since the last time they appeared in a European match. United have had similar inconsistencies. They lost in the Carabao Cup to Bristol City, and dropped some pretty easy points in the league since their qualifications in Champions League. Look for Jose Mourinho to tighten things up in the first leg in Spain, and then push out a little more to get his team into the quarterfinals. Won't be easy though.
Prediction: Manchester United 2, Sevilla 0. (0-0, 2-0)
Key Player: David De Gea. The reason Jose can play these defensive tactics. If he can go to Spain and pull out a clean sheet in a very difficult place to do so, it all but guarantees that United are through to the next round.
2/21 Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma. From a neutral perspective, probably my favorite matchup of the 8. I could see any score line in either stadium, and I think both teams are going to push forward and play to their strengths. Roma have been pretty good in the league this year, and will qualify for some form of competition in Europe next season. Their front attacking line of Stephan El Shaarawy, Edin Dzeko, and Patrick Schick is really good, and Dzeko is just as scary now as he was going back to his VFL Wolfsburg days. City has moved on now, but it honestly baffles me as to why they never used him as a target man for all the talent they had back then. Roma has a sturdy midfield, and one of the better GK's in world football in Alisson Becker. Shakhtar is one of the teams that I just don't know about because the Ukrainian Football League is so obsolete in web availability. Their record in the league is good, and they were able to get out of a group that had Manchester City and Napoli, two of the best teams in the 2017-18 season. So they must be doing something right. They probably have the best player in world football that doesn't play in one of the big 5 leagues in midfielder Fred, but that will soon change. It sounds like Pep Guardiola will have him no matter what the price. It's hard to say how Shakhtar will play; they haven't taken the field since the 10th of December.
Prediction: Shakhtar 4, Roma 2. (2-1, 1-2)
Key Player: Fred. Playing just like the guy he replaced (Fernandinho - and it might be Deja Vu again soon), with a little bit more of attacking flair. He will make things very difficult for the Roma midfield, and I think his string pulling is just a little bit better than his opposite (Daniele De Rossi). Maybe a matchup against his future club in the future?
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