Early 2016 European Championships Predictions

Nate’s 9: Teams that can win Euro 2016

            For the first time in the history of the tournament, the Euros are going to have 24 teams in its finals. Whether you think its overindulgence or about time, we’re about to have a month long tournament for the world’s greatest soccer continent. Personally, I’m for the expansion in this sport as opposed to the expansion in NFL playoffs, March Madness, etc. Each tournament is unique and I think they have to be viewed as such, but European soccer has reached the point of even the 24^th best country being pretty good (Slovenia, Netherlands, Greece, Denmark and Norway all missed out, and they have made and won tournaments in the past). I think we all know that the 68^th best college basketball team has no legit shot at the title whatsoever and it’s only for financial purposes and at the unspoken exploitation of the athlete that they even went from 64 to 68 in the first place. The games are played on Tuesday, and well, aren’t they supposed to be in school on a Tuesday? (Their main argument against a football playoff) Hmm... As for the NFL comparison, I think we can all agree that we already don’t like 7-9 teams in the playoffs and by adding two or even four more, could add teams that finish with that record on a yearly basis. Just seems like money to me. And while I do believe that 16 to 24 expansion does generate serious revenue, think of how excited the citizens of Northern Ireland, Albania, Wales and Slovakia are going to be come tournament time. Well, right or wrong, here are my 9 early favorites to lift the coveted European Championship trophy in the summer of 2016. (So much can change though. Injuries, Group Drawings, Poor Team Selection...)

#9 - Republic of Ireland/Poland. I just couldn’t dwindle it down to nine as I can’t really separate these two nations. I picked Poland, because they have the world’s hottest ST right now in Robert Lewandowski who could almost win a tournament by himself the way Peter Schmeichel did for Denmark in 1992.  I picked Ireland because they currently have great team spirit, and if Greece can do it in 2004 when they had some of the smallest odds in the history of the tournament, then why can’t a team with that similar spirit do so in 2016? Martin O’Neill is a magician as well, and has been getting the best out of these players over the last few months.

Poland one to watch – Robert Lewandowski. Obviously.

RI one to watch – Seamus Coleman. Could be discussed as one of the best FB’s in the world if he can take that next step in June.

#8 – Italy. The last time I doubted them this much, they lifted a World Cup trophy (2006).  They did really well in 2012 to make it to the final and beat Germany along the way.  I’m just not sure with the talent remaining that they can make a huge push to win Euro 2016, but they do have some nice pieces to make it interesting. Daniele De Rossi is one of the world’s best defensive midfielders when healthy, and becomes the engine to this Italian side. Gianluigi Buffon is known the world over, and is still one of the better GK’s playing right now. He might not be able to win a tournament by himself like he did in 2006, but he still gives the Italians an advantage. Not much talent in the attack though could leave Italy vulnerable for goals and a legitimate shot at the title.

Italy one to watch – Mario Balotelli. Maybe gets the chance to shine up top and lift this team on his shoulders. Still a risky play; all things considered.

#7 – England. The last time I gave them this much credit (2004), they really should have won the tournament, but got knocked out on penalty kicks in the QF's (somewhat of a theme, I believe).  For the last 20 years, or since they had a really good chance at winning in ’96, I almost feel like they’ve underachieved. Considering they’ve had greats like Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, John Terry, Alan Shearer, Sol Campbell, Paul Scholes, and David Beckham among others, it’s almost shocking that they’ve never even gotten to a semi-final. While I don’t think this is a team that is going to reach those heights this time around either (They always seem to find a way not to), I do like the possibilities this squad has to offer. The front 3 of Harry Kane, Wayne Rooney and Raheem Sterling can be difficult to handle, and all 3 are capable of providing different ways to score. John Stones is on his way to reaching the heights of a Campbell, Terry or Rio Ferdinand. Joe Hart finally gives them the legit #1 GK that they’ve craved since David Seaman. I would be amazed if England finally lifted the European trophy, but this group has the potential to make things interesting.

England one to watch – Jordan Henderson. He is going to have to be at his very best in order for England to have a shot.

#6 – Croatia. They shocked the world when they finished in 3^rd place at the 1998 World Cup in France. Ever since that tournament, I’ve followed them from afar, and I think they finally have their best shot at a trophy.  I’ve believed for about 6 months now that Croatia has the best central midfield pairing in the entire world in Luka Modrić and Ivan Rakitić. These two already linked up in 2012, and were just a goal shy of getting past Spain to get out of the group. Now, I believe that both of them are even stronger, and both are the main cogs in their respective club teams (Real Madrid and Barcelona).  They have great passing sense, can score from long range, play box to box, and run relentlessly for 90 minutes. If Croatia can figure out the rest of the midfield (Mateo Kovacić, Marcelo Brozović and Ivan Perisić in my humble opinion) and provide Mario Mandžukić with ample opportunities, they could find themselves playing in games that matter near the end. 

Croatia one to watch – Marcelo Brozović. From obscurity to a starter’s position at high flying Inter Milan, Brozović is on track to be the next great Croatian midfielder instead of the stagnant Kovacić.

#5 – Portugal. The one man show. They actually have a bit of talent throughout their squad, but I think that Cristiano Ronaldo is looking forward to the pressure as a result of their embarrassing showing in the 2014 World Cup and will try to win this thing on his own. His time to win an important trophy on the national team is growing short and this may be realistically his last chance. As a result, I push Portugal ahead of England and Croatia where I otherwise wouldn’t in other circumstances. The rest of the team has a little bit of talent, but it hasn’t really come together. Nani is inconsistent; Joao Moutinho disappears on the national team.  Pepe, Bruno Alves, and Fabio Conentrão all peaked a few years ago, and haven’t been replaced adequately. But at the end of the day, this one man show of CR7 could be enough to lift the desired trophy.

Portugal one to watch – Nani. Imagine if Portugal could attack consistently coming down both flanks. Well if Nani decides to ever reach the levels that United and Portugal fans expected of him, Portugal really does have a chance to bring this trophy to Portugal.

#4 – France. The first year I really embraced soccer as a sport was the year 1998, and my first lesson was realizing my mistake when laughing at the chances of the French before the 1998 World Cup. When I started playing FIFA, I never chose France because they only had 2 players worthwhile (not quite) in Zinedine Zidane and Didier Deschamps.  I picked Germany, Italy, England, Holland, Brazil and Argentina well before I would consider France. So imagine my surprise when they pulled in the trophy in the first World tournament that I ever committed to (I watched the 1994 final, but that was it. And I got bored). Now, for the first time since 1998, France hosts a major tournament. And once again, I don’t consider them a favorite. But if the youngster quintet of Anthony Martial, Antoine Griezmann, Paul Pogba, Raphaël Varane and Kurt Zouma piece things together quickly, I could be realizing more mistakes in the near future.

France one to watch – Antoine Griezmann. The torch has officially passed from Franck Ribery to this exquisite winger that plays for Atletico Madrid. If he can replicate the performances of Ribery’s amazing 2006 World Cup showing in Germany, France could have their 3^rd European title.

#3 – Belgium. I really wanted to put them 2^nd, but a lack of experience in big matches wouldn’t leave the back of my mind. I love this current squad probably more than any other national team in the world sans Germany.  They have everything built in to be successful over a 6 week period. They have a world class keeper in Thibaut Courtois. They have a defensive back line that’s difficult to penetrate and a top CB in Vincent Kompany who also controls set pieces, organization, etc. He’s underrated as one of the great defenders from this generation. They have about 11 quality players in midfield roles, and can present any opponent with any type of look that they so require. Eden Hazard, Axel Witsel and Kevin De Bruyne have locked up 3 of the 5 spots for most games, but to have guys like Marouane Felliani, Dennis Praet, Adnan Januzaj, Radja Nainggolan, Mousa Dembele, Dries Mertens and Kevin Mirallas available for any type of game is a pleasant problem for Marc Wilmots (a lovely player in his own right) to have. Most of the options up top are young, but once again they have all styles for all matches. Christian Benteke will likely be first choice if fit, but with Romelu Lukaku and Yannick Carrasco available on the bench, they can knock back any team that tries to be physical with them. My personal favorite for the title, but to do so, they have to beat 2 very capable sides ahead on this list.

Belgium one to watch – Eden Hazard. He is going through a nightmare of a season with Chelsea between all the losing and the daily speculation on his future. A move to Real Madrid might be good for him, but to truly shine in this tournament, I think the move must come soon, so all his efforts can be focused on the task at hand.

#2 – Germany.  The reigning world champions and well deserved. They went through a lot of crises in order to get to this point in world football. Rewind back to 2000 when Germany got 1 point from 3 European championship games. I remember it well; I was there, and the Germans were miserable. And everything changed. They poured money, time and resources into the youth of the sport, and while it took about a decade to truly see the results, Germany is back to being a world powerhouse, and the amount of young talent still coming through is absurd. I look at the players that are likely to miss out on next year’s tournament, guys like Max Meyer and Leon Goretzka of Schalke 04, Julian Weigl and Ilkay Gündoĝan of Dortmund, the Bender twins, a fit again Lukas Podolski. Miroslav Klose and Philip Lahm both retired from the national team as well, and I don’t think they’ll miss a beat. Any country would love to have those types of selection headaches, and I don’t think Joachim Low’s going to get it wrong. That said, we all know the German style of play now and it’s a lovely counter-attacking style that requires stamina for the full ninety minutes. I don’t see too many teams giving Germany problems, and I’d put them at top favorite if it wasn’t for the intangibles of a certain familiar Mediterranean side. 

Germany player to watch – Marco Reus. Missing from the World Cup champion squad due to an injury, Reus has never really gotten to shine on a stage with the entire world watching. If healthy, this would be that chance. Likely to be the center of a three-pronged attack with Mesut Özil and Thomas Müller, Reus’s form could go a long way to determining whether Germany can lift back-to-back trophies.

#1 – Spain. While certainly not having the luster that the 2008-12 trophy lifters had, this team will still be a force to be reckoned with. And they were terrible, and I mean really, really bad in the 2014 World Cup down in Brazil. Maybe they had it coming; complacency always tends to set in after a long period of success with the same players, and Spain hadn’t changed much over the years. Same GK, same midfield, same striker and their lack of interest showed in the shellacking by the Netherlands. That’s why I think they will wake up for this tournament. Vincent Del Bosque has shown great tactical understanding over the years, and this team feeds well into what he wants from a side. They will play a high-pressure possession game, and try to dictate tempo with their short passes and overlapping runs from the back. Gerard Pique, Sergio Ramos, Javi Martinez and Jordi Alba are all in the prime of their careers and have a great understanding with one another. It’s the midfield that he’ll need to sort out, but this current group of 4 that includes: Andres Iniesta, Juan Mata, David Silva and Santi Cazorla bears watching. Great technical players all, their gift for playing a flowing style of football will be justified when they take the trophy back to Spain for the 3^rd time running.

Spain player to watch – Alvaro Morata. I imagine he’ll start up front, based on his form over the past 12 months. While not as deadly as David Villa, or as opportunistic as Fernando Torres, Morata does provide a lot to this team with his audacity for hitting any shot, and coming up big in the biggest moments. If he’s banging them in, I imagine the golden boot as well as best player, will be his. 

My European 2016 11

GK – Iker Casillas (Spain)

LB – Jordi Alba (Spain)

CB – Mats Hummels (Germany)

CB – Vincent Kompany (Belgium)

RB – Sergio Ramos (Spain)

CM – Luka Modrić (Croatia)

CM – Paul Pogba (France)

AM – Raheem Sterling (England)

AM – Gareth Bale (Wales)

ST – Robert Lewandowski (Poland)

ST – Alvaro Morata (Spain)