NFL Playoff Predictions - Championship Round

 Championship Round

Thursday, January 21, 2021

8:49 PM

That was brutal. 2 out of 4 when I should've known better. Of course Josh Allen would do just enough to win, and the speed of the Bills defense… they were sensational and I think they could spring a surprise on the Kansas City Chiefs. On the other side, of course Drew Brees needs to retire because he can't throw an accurate pass come the 4th quarter, and of course Tom Brady would rush for a TD. I need to be better, redemption will be served if I can nail the Super Bowl on the head. Let's get started.

Green Bay vs Tampa Bay. 

A battle of the bays. I've waited years to be able to write that, but the Packers were garbage when Brad Johnson was leading the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl, and Tampa Bay has been trash for most of my life. I think for a lot of football fans, this was the plan for the end of the season. Myself? I had anticipated a Cowboys vs Saints NFC Championship game so that's what I know. But now that we are here, I'm really looking forward to this. Both as a fan of the Packers and as a fan of the sport.

The first time they met, it was boring and not close. Green Bay jumped out to an early lead, but looked uncomfortable, and after a couple of Aaron Rodgers' INT's, were really never in it. Tampa started conservatively, switched to a bold open offense, and then shut the door with clock management in the 2nd half. This time it should be different. First, the game is on the slow, trudging field at Lambeau. If the forecast is right, it's going to be chilly with a chance of snow. This could play into the hands of the Packers. Outside of MVS, the Packers do a great job of holding the football, and the running backs can all make plays out of the backfield. Where the Buccaneers are good is in their aggression; they blitz really well, but their linebackers are almost better dropping back into coverage and stepping into passing lanes. It's a very difficult team to throw against, as Brees can attest to. I think the Packers will need to get into a mindset of keeping the Buccaneers offense off the field, and doing so with long, run heavy drives. Tampa on the other hand just need to do what they've been doing - be patient, be smart, take what the defense gives you, and make big plays on defense. They remind me of the Baltimore Ravens of the past few years with their ball hawking skills. This game will be won in the turnover battle, just like the last one was.

Packers 31-24.

Kansas City vs Buffalo.

The past two weeks I was able to post on a Tuesday, because I had a feeling of what would happen when the game would begin. I've waited until a quiet Thursday night, and still nothing from the Chiefs camp. This is a tough one; I hate head injuries and I think in a lot of cases players are rushed back and the result of it is the player is never the same again (Justin Morneau, Brandon Stokley just to name a few). You want to have your top guys playing and especially at this time, due to the impact of how important these games are. I think this is a little different in only that Patty is so young, and also, the kid already has a Super Bowl ring. If he's not ready to go, I think you gotta sit him - there will be other seasons. Thus so, I am going to treat this AFC Championship game like he isn't in there, but if Patty is 100% and everything checks out peaches and cream, well, Chiefs 37 Bills 27.

Chad Henne. One of my least favorite quarterbacks of all-time, albeit for personal reasons. Yet, he is serviceable enough, and you can't take away anything from his arm. He can chuck it around a bit. Andy Reid is probably coming up with a delicious game plan, one that may remind you of the great west coast quarterback that Reid had while he was in Philly -  A.J. Feeley. Every once in awhile, Donovan McNabb would get injured and miss a few games and Andy Reid had to rely on a guy that wasn't great, but wasn't afraid to make a few throws and win a game. Well, he led the Eagles to the #1 seed in the playoffs, although they ended up getting beat at home by the Buccaneers (rushed McNabb back too soon???) Well, enough story time. 

These Buffalo Bills are no joke. If Henne has to lead the Chiefs to the promised land, I'm a little worried. I think McDermott takes this game into overdrive and has Allen try and throw the ball 50 times. Not that the Chiefs can't get into a shoot out with their speed and weapons on offense, but Henne has not been battle tested, and as the Ravens learned, the defense is relentless. Josh continues on the up tick of a new legacy, Allentown is going to become a thing, and Buffalo is on the way to Super Bowl #5.

Bills in a wild one 38-35.

NFL Playoff Predictions - Divisional Round

 I didn't get every game wrong last week! Feels pretty good. Let's get to it.

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams

I still have a hard time not typing in St. Louis… seems like the most straight forward matchup of the weekend. Besides their hiccup at home against Minnesota, their terrible quarter against the Buccaneers, and an overtime mishap against the Colts, Green Bay played just about the perfect season. The offense was explosive and didn't rely on a singular weapon like I thought it might, Jaire Alexander was able to shut down one side of the field, and Adrian Amos played the backline almost perfectly and got a well deserved all-pro honor. They were really only vulnerable when the passing game wasn't working, and that didn't happen too often. Only the Carolina Panthers game comes to mind. 

I really liked McVay's game plan for the Seahawks last week. Deliver no mistakes and an established run game, and most playoff games can be won. He understands that as well as anyone in the league, maybe more than anybody else. They got to the Super Bowl not with the arm of Jared Goff, but on the legs of Todd Gurley. Then they drafted the player that I thought would be the best rookie RB, Cam Akers, and while he had his struggles early on, this is his back field now. He is a mix of strength and speed, but sees the holes really well, and can carry the pile a yard or two. Damon Harrison will be a much needed player in this matchup. If Goff and Aaron Donald were 100%, I think this game goes down to the wire, but Matt LaFleur can match wits with McVay, and I think Aaron outplays whatever QB lines up on the other side.

Packers in a 28-17 win.

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

I know that there's a game that matches two NFL legends against each other happening this weekend - Baker Mayfield and Patty Mahomes - but this is the toughest game for me to predict. The quarterbacks are young, the running games are inconsistent, and outside of Mark Andrews and Stefon Diggs, there's not one playmaker in the passing game that I would count on in the late minutes of the game. I like both defenses just enough to keep the QB's honest, and not make this game a rout in favor of either side. Josh Allen did look good in Buffalo's first playoff win since I was a teenager… and a very young teenager at that. Voice cracking and everything. Thurman Thomas was my favorite player in the league at the time, nostalgia cracking at the seams. Baltimore had yet to exist then. Baltimore is built a little differently than Indianapolis, where Indy wanted to get to the QB, Baltimore wants you to throw, they blitz well, and that's how they take their risks. A turnover or two for Buffalo, and this game gets interesting. Josh Allen statistically punishes teams that try to blitz him. On the other side, Lamar Jackson had a beauty of a 4th quarter last week. It was a tight, emotional game, and I think he grew immensely from that moment. This is still a team that last year ran rampant through the AFC. Then they had a strange hiccup against the Titans, and they were gone. 

I keep going back and forth on this game. Lamar plays brilliantly. Allen can't be stopped. Diggs will make Marcus Peters cry. Diggs is out of big time playoff moments. Neither team has the running game that can be successful in keeping the other quarterback of the field. I think the drives will be quick, and both teams will be looking for the big play. If there's anything I've learned over the years watching football, it's that you can't always have what the heart wants. I'm dying for Rodgers vs Allen. There's a possibility I might be left with Rodgers vs Lamar, or worse.

Ravens upset the Bills (sort of) 33-28.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns

These last few weeks have gone on for so long, that I've forgotten that for 3 months the Chiefs were the best team in football. They were lighting up teams every single game, and they were doing it with one of the most fluid passing games that I've ever seen. Then, it got a little tight with the Saints, and it got unusually interesting against the Falcons, before the last match of the season was a wash. And because of this, it feels like the Cleveland Browns have been the best team in football lately. National media? Cleveland Browns. Twitter? Cleveland Browns. Television? Cleveland Browns. Commercials? Baker Mayfield. 

I have this uneasy feeling that all of this will end in a few days time. I think the Chiefs are rip roaring and ready to go, and I think the Browns' feel good. It has a bit of that feeling from last year when the Houston Texans came ready to play, jumped out to an absolutely ridiculous lead, and well. The Chiefs are the Super Bowl champions. Lest we forget, the Browns had a pretty similar lead against the Steelers last week, and let them get back into the game. Not in my wildest dreams do I see Patty Mahomes throwing 4 interceptions, and even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire sitting out, it really shouldn't be that difficult. Chuck a few to Travis Kelce, chuck a few to Tyreek Hill, and the job should be done.

Chiefs 42, Browns 31.

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I think if the Packers were eliminated, I would enjoy this more. Unfortunately for me, if the Rams win this weekend, I'm not going to want to watch another quarter of football. If the Pack win, I'm hoping for a slugfest. If we weren't around, I'd want 900 passing yards and 90 points. 

These two teams have been very strange this season. At the beginning of the year, I thought they would be the two best teams in the NFC, and both of their matchups would be close. Instead, the Saints have just smashed the Buccaneers twice, and in the second game, it looked like Tom Brady was going to cry. I mean, it was really ugly. Almost as bad as thinking it was 3rd down, when it was actually 4th. But the Bucs have been resilient if nothing else. They added Antonio Brown and Leonard Fournette to positions of great strength, and really, it may have been unnecessary to do so. Tyler Johnson was doing just fine, and Ronald Jones is a horse. So now they have all these weapons and just one football for them. But it's Tom Brady, no one is complaining, and they must like their chances in round 3.

I do too, if I'm being honest. The Saints are a weird one for me. My Super Bowl pick back in September, they had signed Emmanuel Sanders and really looked like a well oiled machine. Then they laid an egg against the Raiders, lost at home to the Packers (which in hindsight was very costly), eeked out 3 point win after 3 point win, before dropping the two games late to the Eagles and Chiefs. Finally, in a playoff game where they could make a statement, they casually force Chicago's hand and escape with a victory. Not a convincing one, however. It was never in doubt, but they tried to make it so. So this is where it gets tricky. The Bucs seem to be firing on most of their cylinders, Tom looks good, play calling is sublime, and Washington never really stood a chance. New Orleans on the other hand, dallied, and dallied some more. Against a very, VERY average Chicago Bears team. But they've crushed the Bucs twice. With a flip of a coin…

Saints over the Bucs 28-24.

NFL Playoff Predictions - Wild Card Round

 Wild Card Round

Monday, January 4, 2021

10:48 PM

I stopped making predictions a few years ago when I got every single game WRONG over the course of the entire wild card weekend, and the divisional round. 0 for 8. Now I know that my favorite sport switched from football to soccer (football) awhile ago, but I still thought I knew what I was talking about… at least a little bit. Well, this new year has inspired me to start writing a little bit more, and I guess I'm good at talking about sports? Well, we shall see. To make it a little more interesting for these playoffs, I asked all 3 of my children to partake in the prediction process; if I'm capable of going 0 for 8 again, then I deserve to get roasted by my boys. They live for it.

Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts.  

It should be the easiest game of the weekend. If it wasn't for Aaron Rodgers to play out of his mind for an entire season, Josh Allen would be the NFL MVP. In his 3rd season. That's crazy to me. The weapons are good, but not great, the running game is average, but not good, and the play calling has been a little interesting at times. What Allen has going for him is this: he has a Ben Roethlisberger type arm, with Aaron Rodgers escapeability. I should've known when he came into US Bank stadium a couple of years ago that he would be special, and now I have no problem saying it. He might be right there with Pat Mahomes as an elite QB of the next generation. 

The reason it might not be the easiest game of the weekend, is because of DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard. I only got to see them twice because of the crappy bias the NFL seems to have against the Colts - I can't remember ever seeing them in primetime outside of the game against the Green Bay Packers. I also watched them run roughshod over the Minnesota Vikings. But in those two games, their defensive line made it very tough for Kirk Cousins to throw comfortably, and even Aaron Rodgers didn't have a typical Rodgers game. Can they make Josh Allen uncomfortable? I believe they can, I also think that they will. And he's too good. 

Bills in a 31-24 win.

Aiden: Buffalo

Logan: Buffalo

Lucas: Buffalo

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams.

This is my favorite matchup of the weekend, but after sitting on social media and an hour on NFL LIve, it seems like no one wants to talk about it. Sean McVay has a really good record against the Seahawks and they played them tough in both games this year. He won't be afraid to call the game the way he wants to; personnel and score don't really matter. I could see the Rams trying to get into a shootout with the Seahawks; I could also seeing this game being a defensive struggle filled with clock management play calling and conservative plays. I hope it's the first one.

Seattle is going to be a tough out in the NFC, and I'm surprised they weren't talked about this Monday morning. It was Tom's Bucs, and Aaron's Packers, and Drew's Saints. I know that all 3 QB's have rings and they aren't fazed by much. But Russell is right there in that group. He was one bad play call away from potentially having 2 rings. This game will be fun, but I think it will be won or lost in the X's and O's. Without the 12th man involved, and Jared Goff healthy, I'm calling for one of the few upsets of the weekend.

Rams squeak by 24-21.

Aiden: Seattle

Logan: Seattle

Lucas: Seattle

Washington Football Team vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When I saw Dak go down that warm Autumn day, I truly thought that Rivera's "Football Team" would be the ones to break out of this terrible division. Making my predictions before the season began, I really thought Dallas would be one of the challenging teams for the title this year, but Dak is just too important to everything that they do. We saw McCarthy turn down the high risk plays to almost nothing afterwards, Dallas was boring, but usually in games. It was the best he could do. Washington deserves this spot; Nate Sudfeld be damned. They have a tenacious pass rush, but unfortunately they're not really good at anything else. It was good enough to beat a battered up  Steelers team, but covering all the Bucs weapons and getting to Tom will be the toughest thing they have to do this season. 

Tom had a really good season, and they were a Saints sweep away from locking up a top 2 seed. When teams get to him, this team is very ordinary and have a hard time coming back from bigger deficits. The Packers game was a little different, Aaron threw 2 picks that turned a 10-0 lead into a 10-14 deficit, and Tampa just took over from there. But they are a team that loves to play with an early lead. They give the rock to Ronald Jones and occasionally Leonard Fournette, and ride the backs to victory. The key lies within. If Washington can get Tom into 3rd and longs, then they'll have a chance at 7-9, to make a splash in the NFC playoffs. I'm not one to bet against Tom though, I see the Bucs starting to realize that it's going to be the Wild West in the NFC this month.

Bucs win because of the early lead 28-16.

Aiden: Tampa Bay

Logan: Tampa Bay

Lucas: Tampa Bay

My wife: Washington Football Team ☺

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens

Of course this would be the noon game. What a delicious story. The 2019 Ravens were the league's darlings and Lamar Jackson was coming off an MVP season. And then bang! Derrick Henry, and game over. This year had some friendly taps on the helmet and a few hands to the chests, just conflict among friends. No. Not really. No love lost between these two teams, and I think this game will be a real battle. Maybe not the closest game per se, but great for television.

I've been half right half wrong about this Titans team all year. For those that remember, they were my Super Bowl pick to come out of the AFC. I thought they would ride Derrick Henry to 2,000 yards (right), and play in tough defensive minded affairs (wrong). The Browns scored at will against this team, the Jaguars scored 30, the Packers casually scored 40 and the Texans put up 36 and 38. Tennessee has had to rely way more on AJ Brown and Ryan Tannehill than I could've possibly imagined, and I've always been of the opinion that relying on Tannehill is not a good thing for any NFL Franchise. I admit I was wrong, and had he not played as well as he did, the Colts are winning the AFC South. Baltimore is getting hot at the right time, and their offense is still very difficult to deal with. Lamar just doesn't make mistakes, and he has really learned how to be patient with his throws, and when and how to use his legs. This game should be high scoring, but it benefits both teams. Who does it benefit more?

Tennessee Titans in a thriller 34-28.

Aiden: Baltimore

Logan: Tennessee

Lucas: Baltimore

Wife as a tiebreaker: Tennessee

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears

The AFC couldn't have picked a better time to add a 7th team to the wildcard playoffs. The NFC? Not so much. There were times this year in which I thought the Bears were one of the worst teams in football. Their offense couldn't get a first down on important drives, and their defense was giving up big plays, which was totally uncharacteristic of them. They were one bad quarter against the Vikings away from not making the playoffs, but low and behold, here we are. And what a delicious opportunity for the Bears. The Saints got a little taste of the COVID-19 virus, and while it didn't affect them in the least against the Panthers, I wonder if maybe the Bears can't cook up a game plan to contain the Drew Brees/Taysom Hill QB duo.

No, they probably can't. While I will never care for Sean Payton the human being, he is an offensive mastermind and he won't have to deal with a playoff team in a purple jersey this season. And the issue was never their offense. A huge whiff on Stefon Diggs in the miracle game, and Kyle Rudolph's mitts were just too big to tear the ball away from. Jimmy Graham is a shadow, and while I think Cole Kmet is the new Kyle Rudolph, it's safe to say Mitchell Trubisky isn't the new Kirk Cousins. Fortunately for the Bears, there are a tale of two Saints this year. There's the team that smashed the Buccaneers twice, played the Chiefs extremely tough, and made easy work of the Vikings, Broncos and 49ers. There's also the team that struggled to beat the Lions, lost to the Eagles, and needed a really questionable penalty call to beat the Bears in OT earlier this year… with Nick Foles as the Bears QB. That game told me everything about the Trubisky/Foles conundrum. Well Trubisky is back, but so is Michael Thomas. I know who I would rather have.

Saints start gaining momentum 27-14.

Aiden: New Orleans

Logan: New Orleans

Lucas: New Orleans

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

Uh…. Um… null and void? So if the head coach can't be in the facilities or on the field this weekend, how do they expect the Browns to perform at their very best, or even well enough to compete in the game? What if there is an outbreak at the Cleveland facilities this week? I'll try and guess based on the information that I have, but this game could be anything. Or played on Tuesday. Or not even at all.

The Cleveland Browns season has been nothing short of amazing. I know a lot of people were surprised with the Stefanski hiring, but I actually thought it was nothing short of brilliant. He has always gotten good QB play from his quarterbacks in Minnesota, and I think each and every one of them over achieved under his tutelage. Sam Bradford was not worth a 1st, but was still solid. Teddy played well until the injury. Case did nothing wrong. Kirk had decent numbers considering the neglect of the offensive line. So I'm thinking Baker and Kevin could be special. And for some moments they have been. That Ravens game was probably my favorite of the season. And while any QB that got 4 games vs the NFC East has likely looked good this year, I grudgingly admit that Baker did take it to another level to get the Browns to this level. Pittsburgh has been my biggest question mark this year. Coming into the season, I saw them as your typical 8-8/9-7 team. Then they get 8 wins in 8 weeks, and I start questioning my opinions as a football mind. Then they were who I thought they were, when I looked at their schedule and saw 15-1/14-2. Had they played that way the final 8 weeks, this game would be like another bye week. Their struggles concern me. But not as much as a head coach in quarantine. 

Steelers in a weird one 27-10.

Aiden: Pittsburgh

Logan: Pittsburgh

Lucas: Pittsburgh