* When I make my yearly predictions and analysis in sports, I never put on any tinted glasses in my writing, mainly because it's more fun to be right than happy. This time though, I want to put on my tinted glasses for just a couple of minutes, as I have a lot to say on the topic of Manchester United and the potential of this team over the next 12 months.
Manchester United: This off-season was completely unexpected. About 4 months ago, I thought Jose was going to buy 3 players, and while I thought the team would improve, I didn’t think it would put United into the position of challenging for the Premier League. I assumed the 3 buy's would be Antoine Griezmann from Atletico, Michael Keane from Burnley, and Danny Rose from Tottenham. While I liked all 3 targets, especially Keane because I thought he got a raw deal from United, I didn't think this was the type of summer that would put us in the conversation. Keane probably wouldn't break the starting 11, at least not consistently. Rose would step in immediately, but would create a huge logjam at LB along with Luke Shaw, Matteo Darmian, Ashley Young and Daley Blind. 4 guys can fill that role throughout the season. I do believe that Rose gets into the starting 11 though. Lastly, Griezmann. For those that know, he's been my target for United for about 2 seasons. I think he is a fantastic player, and would fit in with this team really well. He can play wide and allow Anthony Martial to play as a front man, or play behind a striker, which would have been great if Zlatan had gotten re-signed, or he could lead from the front, and beat opposing teams offside traps. He is probably the most interchangeable forward in the world maybe outside of the big 2, and I'm not sure Cristiano Ronaldo could fill that "in the hole" role. In any case, it wasn't meant to be.
Now, I'm delighted. I didn't think United had any chance of signing Romelu Lukaku, but after the Griezmann wooing came to an end, it appears United had him second on their wish list. Personally, I thought that Griezmann, followed by Harry Kane would be the best fit, but Tottenham made it very clear that wasn't going to happen. After that, Lukaku would have been my choice, but I just assumed he would end up back at Chelsea. He didn't, and we reap the benefits. He's almost the perfect front man for a fluid 4-3-3; with Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Anthony Martial/Marcus Rashford on the wings, he's only required to hold up the ball through the middle, press defenders towards the touchlines, and get in the box on free kicks, corners, and crosses. So far, it's been perfection.
Victor Lindelof was actually United's first signing. And I'll let you in on a little secret. I don't rate Marcos Rojo at all. So I was really pleased that Jose brought reinforcements into the defense. While Lindelof had his ups and downs during the pre-season, he still looks like he has an edge to his game that could really shine once he settles into the pace of the Premier League. One of my favorite defenders in the history of the game, Nemanja Vidic, had a very difficult first couple of games. Now, many consider him a club legend. Won't put Lindelof on that level, but now Jose can switch CB's based on form, and not on need.
The best signing far and away was that of Nemanja Matic. While I love both of our central midfielders immensely (Paul Pogba and Ander Herrera), neither of them really enjoys sitting back as a holding midfielder and breaking up play. Michael Carrick is well suited for it, but Michael Carrick is also limited as he continues to get up there in age. I think that the 4-3-3 formation has really become Europe's flavor - Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG, Bayern and Chelsea all use some form of it, and one might say they had the 5 best seasons in Europe sans perhaps Juventus and Monaco. This allows both of our midfielders to stay central, and support the attack. Nemanja will sit back and disrupt play, and create space for everybody else. The missing piece to the team in my humble opinion (maybe one more winger, or a stronger 10 [Griezmann, anyone]), but this should be enough to bring in one major trophy this season.
Glasses off.
Ligue 1:
Champions: PSG
Top 3: PSG, Monaco, Olympique Marseille
Coupe France: PSG
Player of the Year: Neymar
Story of the season: I think this league is pretty much a two horse race, but the race for 3rd should be exciting. Assuming Nice doesn't make the Champions League, they along with Lyon, Marseille, St. Etienne and Lille should all be battling for that final place this season. (I don’t think Nice has enough firepower to challenge on 2 fronts). PSG should win. The front line of Neymar, Edinson Cavani and Julian Draxler could be one of Europe's best. Holding onto Verratti could be one of the biggest moves of the summer. He's the world's classiest midfielder. Monaco sold off a number of important pieces including the player I think will take over the LB position for France - Benjamin Mendy, but they have a bunch of young talent, and if they can keep Thomas Lemar and Fabinho, shouldn't be too far off the pace. I really like what Marseille did bringing back Dimitri Payet and Steve Mandanda and holding onto Patrice Evra and Florian Thauvin for another year. This is a good blend of experience, talent and youth, and a bunch of guys that understand the enthusiasm of the Marseille support. I think they sneak out with that final Champions League place.
Bundesliga:
Champions: Bayern Munich
Top 4: Bayern, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, FC Schalke
Europa League: Borussia Monchengladbach, TSV Hoffenheim
DFB Pokal Winner: Bayer Leverkusen
Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Story of the season: 2nd through 7th. I think that Bayern will be a non-story, because their team got even stronger and they only lost Douglas Costa and Philip Lahm as far as real substance. Corentin Tolisso will step in seamlessly for Xabi Alonso, and I don't think there will be any real loss there. In fact, with his 90 minute running ability, it might take Bayern back to the level of their treble season - when they ran Barcelona down to a shadow of their former selves. Arturo Vidal is in peak form, and if they replace Lahm, the season should be a breeze. Dortmund, Leipzig, Leverkusen, Schalke and Hoffenheim will probably be the front runners for challenging in the European places. Dortmund did get stronger - replacing Matthias Ginter with Omer Toprak and adding Mo Dahoud to the mid-field. He is a quicker, but maybe less intelligent version of Ilkay Gundogan. Should fit in really nice next to Julian Weigl when he recovers from his ankle injury. The story to their season will lie at the feet of Ousmane Dembele and Michael Zorc. If they sell, great, but he's a tough player to replace. If they don't, they might have a shot at the title, that's how good Dembele is. I really like the RB Leipzig side. I know it's not Germany's favorite - they've somewhat gone about their business the same way that Manchester City has - but they play really good football, and a lot of their top players are between 20-23 years old. The kids finished 2nd last season, even with Champions League, I think they're good for 3rd. Schalke beats everyone else to the last Champions League spot in Leon Goretzka and Max Meyer's last season with the blue and white. I imagine both move to bigger clubs next summer (Bayern).
Italian Serie A:
Champions: Napoli
Top 3: Napoli, Juventus, AC Milan
Europa League: Inter Milan, Roma
Copa Italia Winner: Roma
Player of the year: Marek Hamsik
Story of the season: My surprise pick Napoli would probably be the story if I was correct, but I think the major story when I am wrong will be the resurgence of AC Milan, not only in Italy, but Europe as well. I think with the team that they have now, they could pull a Manchester United, win Europa league and get an automatic place in Champions League next season. They became a very deep squad with 8 signings as so far, and Ricardo Rodriguez I rate as one of the best backs in the world that doesn't play for Barcelona, Real or Bayern. They have a plethora of talent, and with Gianluigi Donnarumma deciding to stay in goal for the next couple of seasons (maybe), they could push to get back to the heights of the mid 2000's (multiple Champions League final appearances). Now for Napoli… I really like their team. Or I should say, their fully fit squad. They played Real Madrid really tough last year, and their attack might be as unique as they come in Europe. 3 of the 4 forwards (Lorenzo Insigne, Dries Mertens and Jose Callejon can all play in different places, and Arkadiusz Milik is the new Robert Lewandoski. Just a natural goal scorer. If they can find the right midfield trio to boss around on both the domestic and European stages and stay extremely healthy because after the first 18 it gets really, really thin, they could finally come home with the coveted trophy.
La Liga:
Champions: Atletico Madrid
Top 4: Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Villarreal
Europa League: Sevilla, Athletic Bilbao
Copa Del Rey Winner: Real Madrid
Player of the Year: Uh… the obvious 2… just for fun, I will say Phillipe Coutinho
Story of the Season: It might have already started. Who is going to replace Neymar Jr? And whomever it is, are they going to be good enough to keep Barcelona at the highest level? In years past, everything has happened so smoothly. Alexis Sanchez replaced Samuel Eto'o. Luis Suarez replaced David Villa. Neymar replaced Pedro. Ivan Rakitic replaced Xavi. And they just kept winning trophies. This time though, nobody wants to sell their most talented player to Barcelona, they don't have anyone from within to do it themselves (Gerard Deulofeu certainly isn't the answer) and their recent signings can't play in the same way (Semedo and Paulinho). So they have it all to do. Real will just keep on humming, and will likely make me look like an idiot for picking against them. They didn’t spend hardly any cash this summer, and the player they did spend the most money on, likely is the 8th best midfielder on the team right now (Dani Ceballos - who will be top 5 by next year, top 2-3 the year after). It shouldn't matter. So why the love for Atletico? Well, they couldn't do anything due to a transfer ban, and the team remains intact. Lucky for them. Koke, Saul Niguez, Antoine Griezmann and Jan Oblak should all be targets for the biggest of clubs, and as of the time I am writing this, all 4 remain on the roster. (Oblak is being linked with… PSG, naturally) They have a ton of talent coming through the ranks sans Theo Hernandez who left for aforementioned Real Madrid. Thomas Partey, Saul, Lucas Hernandez, Jose Gimenez, Angel Correa and Luciano Vietto all have the talent and ambition to break the first team soon, if not done already. I think this depth, minus a focus on Europe gives Atletico a breakthrough. Especially if they can work out a loan for Diego Costa.
Premier League:
Champions: Manchester United
Top 4: Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham (damn tough to pick this)
Europa League: Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton
League Cup Winner: Everton
FA Cup Winner: Arsenal (like the sky is blue)
Player of the Year: Could be any of about 15 guys… David De Gea
Story of the Season: The top 7, and the fact that nobody is talking about it as a top 7. I think Everton can challenge for Champions League, but they should make it to Europa, especially if I'm right about them winning the League Cup (automatic berth). Liverpool and Chelsea haven't gotten the depth that they seek to play across multiple formats this year, and with 2 weeks left, their lack of depth might knock them out of the Champions League race (I'm assuming Tottenham spends lavishly here in the next couple of days - Ross Barkley and Davison Sanchez for starters). Tottenham is just really tough… a really tough team to beat. The minute you take the game and attempt to put it on the front foot, bang! They score on the next run of play. They could finish anywhere from 1st down to 7th in my opinion. You already know about my love for what Manchester United did, and Manchester City was close behind. I feel like Ederson is the perfect GK for what Guardiola tries to do, and his aggressiveness will allow for the line to play up just a little higher. With Kyle Walker and Benjamin Mendy being the new full backs, that line is about to get pretty high… I actually like Arsenal this year (so far). If they are able to keep Sanchez and Mesut Özil and maybe add one more signing before the end of the window, they should be able to get back into Champions League one way or another. Liverpool's position currently depends on Coutinho. If they keep him, great, and they probably have enough to finish top 4. If they lose him and don't replace him, 5th might be high. 7th might be more realistic as I'm not sure Adam Lallana can fill that roll. My guess is they sell him extremely high, replace him with another player before the end of the window (Manuel Lanzini or Erik Lamela) and lock up that first Europa League place. Another fun story - 8th through 16th. West Ham, Stoke, Leicester, Watford, West Bromwich, Bournemouth, Southampton and Swansea will all makes those places watchable. Maybe Brighton sneaks in at the end, a lot of recognizable Premier league names on that roster.
Europa League:
Champions: AC Milan
Semi-Finals: AC Milan, Bayer Leverkusen, Hoffenheim, Arsenal
Story of the Tournament: The rebirth of AC Milan, clearly. I already assume Liverpool is going to knock out Hoffenheim, but they have a team that could make a run in this tournament. Serge Gnabry is as exciting as they come, and he gets to window dress for his parent club Bayern Munich over the next 12 months. I also like a few of the smaller fish in this tournament (FC Plzen, Ludogorets, BATE), just not enough to get them in the final four.
Champions League:
Champions: Real Madrid
Quarterfinalists: Manchester United, Juventus, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, Napoli, PSG.
Story of the Tournament: The likelihood of this many strong teams in the quarter finals. Besides perhaps Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund, Roma, Benfica, Monaco and Atletico, this is Europe's finest all in the tournament again. I think it will be difficult to upset the big horses, and we should have a final four that leaves all soccer/football fans with their mouths watering. I really wanted to pick RB Leipzig to go on a big run, but being in the 4th pot, likely means they get paired up with some really big clubs in the group stages. Possibly next season.
World 11:
GK: David De Gea - Manchester United - Has to be if they go where I think they can.
LB: Marcelo - Real Madrid - Again and again.
CB: Mats Hummels - Bayern Munich - Lukewarm first season, should blossom now that he's been there 12 months.
CB: Diego Godin - Atletico Madrid - If I pick them to win a title, some have to stand out.
RB: Hector Bellerin - Arsenal - Too bad for Arsenal, because Barcelona will come sniffing.
CM: Paul Pogba - Manchester United - The king has returned.
CM: Luka Modric - Real Madrid - Maybe most underrated player of our generation.
CM: Marek Hamsik - Napoli - If he lifts them to the heights of my predictions.
LW: Neymar - PSG - First time I've said this, but I think he takes the throne from CR7 and Messi.
ST: Harry Kane - Spurs - The world will now believe he's as good as England thinks.*
RW: Messi - Barcelona - Quiet start, he'll be fine.
*An apology to Cristiano Ronaldo, but I just think those front 3 light it up this year. Ronaldo's team is so good, that I think it comes from everywhere this season.
*An apology to Robert Lewandoski. I think he is probably the best forward in the world, will win the Bundesliga POY award, but Harry Kane will win it because, well, Harry Kane.
My 11:
GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma - AC Milan - From the first time I saw him at 16… 16! Will be the world's next best.
LB: Luke Shaw - Man Utd - I still believe! But he needs to stay on the field for once.
CB: Mats Hummels - Bayern Munich - Damn it… I still love him.
CB: Virgil Van Dijk - TBD - This guy is worth the price, may the best team win.
RB: Lukasz Piszczek - Dortmund - Swan song, but he's been steady for 5+ years now.
CM: Paul Pogba - Man Utd - My dude.
CM: Nemanja Matic - Man Utd - I still don't believe it. I'd have paid 50 million.
CM: Christian Pulisic - Dortmund - Kid gets me excited about American soccer for once.
LW: Ousmane Dembele - Dortmund - I'm pissed at him, that's how good he is.
CF: Wayne Rooney - Everton - Until he keels over and dies, he will make my team.
RW: Marcus Rashford - Man Utd - My new Rooney, albeit a different version.
5 young stars to watch for:
CAM Marco Asensio - Future Real Madrid legend in the waiting.
CDM Amadou Diawara - Haven't been this excited for a youngster since… Ousmane Dembele.
LW Ismaila Sarr - The next Ousmane Dembele.
CB Andreas Christensen - Chelsea has one here if they're just patient.
CDM Adrien Rabiot - Will give all those gifted forwards at PSG room to roam.
